Sonoma 2015 preview: NASCAR visits its most unpredictable track

If you were to rank NASCAR’s most unpredictable tracks, it would seem a given that Daytona International Speedway and Talladega Superspeedway would reside first and second.

In terms of unpredictability and surprise winners, however, neither of the twin restrictor-plate monsters compare to Sonoma Raceway’s recent history. As the twisty road course, just one of two on the Sprint Cup Series schedule, has produced 10 different winners in its past 10 races.

That a 10-turn venue where drivers are required to turn left and right could emerge as NASCAR’s most competitive track would have formerly seemed outlandish. Road courses once were ruled by a select few, with the majority of drivers and teams looking at Sonoma and Watkins Glen, NASCAR’s lone other road course, as just nuisances to tolerate before returning to the ovals.

Over Sonoma’s first 16 races (1989-present), Jeff Gordon recorded four wins, Ricky Rudd, Rusty Wallace and Ernie Irvan two apiece, with Geoffrey Bodine, Dale Earnhardt, Mark Martin, Tony Stewart and Robby Gordon each notching a single victory. But since Stewart won for a second time in 2005, no repeat winner has followed.

“I can remember showing up here early on and very few drivers were excited about coming here,” Jeff Gordon said Friday. “They all were like, ‘Oh my gosh, a road course,’ because they just knew the chances of sliding off the track and making mistakes.”

The bygone approach for many teams saw just rudimentary modifications to cars designed for a short track or a speedway. That mentality evolved as the depth of the fields became stronger and points ever more important in the championship.

Nowadays cars are purposely constructed for Sonoma and Watkins Glen, while drivers venture to road racing schools and spend extensive time testing in advance. Which combined with a much more regulated and ever-changing NASCAR rulebook prohibiting teams from carrying over a successful setup from year-to-year, has resulted in widespread parity.

“As competition grew everywhere, it also grew on the road courses and everybody started realizing you couldn’t allow even one race to get away from you,” Gordon said.

“We used to be able to have some areas where we could find an edge. Maybe in the transmission or the braking, the set-up, where we moved the weight around and things like that. These days we are just not able to do that. It really has not only equaled out the cars, but has allowed the drivers to be more equal on these tracks as well.”

If anyone would know about how equalized the field now is, it would be Gordon. The native of Vallejo, Calif., roughly 20 miles outside of Sonoma, used to dominate in front of his legion of supporters. He won three consecutive races from 1998-2000 -- the only driver to ever do so at Sonoma -- and is the all-time track record holder in wins, top-fives, top-10s, laps led and average finish.

But Gordon hasn’t won a Sonoma race since 2006. Instead names not often associated with road racing -- Kasey Kahne, Clint Bowyer, Martin Truex Jr., Carl Edwards -- have all paid a visit to victory lane in recent years.

However, the trend of road course races being wide-open affairs is exclusive to Sonoma and not prevalent at Watkins Glen, where even though its less technical and therefore less challenging, the usual suspects tend to reign. The reasons are many, but Sonoma’s 1.99-mile surface that wears tires greatly and produces varying pit strategies and a constant shuffling of the running order is the most cited explanation.

“Watkins Glen, the race is kind of a flow of OK, we can do it in two or three stops, but the tires aren’t as important,” said AJ Allmendinger, who won at the Upstate New York track last August. “They don’t wear out as much. So, it’s a typical flow.

“(At Sonoma), a yellow at the wrong time or if you get a guy that gets tires when [everyone else] doesn’t, it can change the whole course of the race. And I think that’s what we see a lot is just that strategy that goes on around this place.”

Regarded by many as NASCAR’s best road course race, Allmendinger nearly won at Sonoma last year, leading a race-high 35 laps. But his bid came undone following contact with Dale Earnhardt Jr. sent him careening into the wall. Allmendinger finished 37th.

Any disappointment subsided, when he broke through two months later to win his first career race and a subsequent spot in the Chase for the Sprint Cup. Allmendinger finds himself in a scenario, again needing a win to make NASCAR’s playoffs with his likeliest chance coming either Sunday or in August at Watkins Glen.

Allmendinger’s challenge of becoming Sonoma’s 11th-straight different winner was enhanced when he captured the pole Saturday. And he has the endorsement of the driver who knows a thing or two about what it takes to win in California’s wine country.

“I think AJ has the skills to be the fastest and the best here this weekend,” Gordon said. “Then, it’s going to come down to executing that in the race. I would say he is the guy to beat.”