Chase for the Sprint Cup championship breakdown

NASCAR’s four-driver Chase for the Sprint Cup grid is set and the field is the deepest in the three-year knockout playoff format. Each of the four finalists, Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards, Jimmie Johnson and Joey Logano, have won a minimum of three times this season, and a sound case can be made for any of the four to drive away with the championship Sunday at Homestead-Miami Speedway.

Joe Gibbs Racing No. 18 Toyota

2016 wins: Four

Best Homestead finish: 1st (2015)

Homestead average finish: 21.1 (11 starts)

Championships: One (2015)

Why he will win: The defending Sprint Cup champion is no stranger to the pressure that comes with being in the final four. Last year, Busch was in a similar position and claimed his first series title by outdueling Kevin Harvick for both the race win and championship. With how strong the JGR Toyotas have consistently been on intermediate tracks this season, Busch is well positioned to repeat both feats.

Why he won’t win: Busch began his title defense brilliantly, scoring three victories in the opening 11 races and regularly leading laps. But since winning at Kansas Speedway in May, the performance of the No. 18 team has cooled to some degree. Busch has only picked up a single checkered flag since, and led all of eight laps in the past eight races. While always formidable, these results don’t speak to a driver and team poised to win on Sunday.

Joe Gibbs Racing No. 19 Toyota

2016 wins: Three

Best Homestead finish: 1st (2008, 2010)

Homestead average finish:9.2 (12 starts)

Championships: Zero

Why he will win: Among the four contenders, no one is better than Edwards, whose two wins and ninth-place average finish top both categories. Further working to his advantage, he won two weeks ago at Texas Motor Speedway a track similar in many aspects to Homestead. Both venues are 1.5-miles around, tend to favor drivers who can run the high groove up against the wall and utilize the same tire compound. Edwards also has one of the best crews on pit road, which factored substantially in him winning at Texas.

Why he won’t win: Edwards carries a reputation as a driver who struggles to produce when the pressure is on. In 2011, he entered the season final leading Tony Stewart by three points but lost the championship on a tiebreaker when Stewart, with a Herculean effort, out-drove him to take the race win and the series title. And while Edwards’ Texas triumph is encouraging, it was only his second top-five finish since mid-July, a 17-race span.

Hendrick Motorsports No. 48 Chevrolet

2016 wins: Four

Best Homestead finish: 2nd (2004, 2010)

Homestead average finish:14.1 (15 starts)

Championships: Six (2006-2010, 2013)

Why he will win: C’mon, it’s Johnson, one of the sport’s all-time greats who with a seventh championship will tie Richard Petty and Dale Earnhardt for the most in NASCAR history. As he’s repeatedly demonstrated, few are better at rising to the occasion when the stakes are at the utmost peak. If you need more reasons why Johnson may be the favorite on Sunday, crew chief Chad Knaus is in a class of his own at calling a race and executing outside-the-box strategy when needed. Also, Hendrick Motorsports has rebounded from a lackluster regular season and found its stride in the Chase by fielding cars capable of winning nearly every week.

Why he won’t win:There aren’t many places where Johnson struggles, but Homestead is definitely on the short list. The South Florida oval is one of four tracks where he’s never visited victory lane, and his four top-five finishes are only exceeded by his one at Kentucky Speedway. Part of that is because rarely has Johnson gone into the final race of the season needing a win, as he’s often been in defense mode. Still, it is one of the few areas of uncertainty surrounding the six-time champion.

Team Penske No. 22 Ford

2016 wins: Three

Best Homestead finish: 4th (2015)

Homestead average finish:17.7 (seven starts)

Championships: Zero

Why he will win: Others may garner more headlines, but Logano has quietly evolved into one of NASCAR’s best and most consistent drivers. Since 2014 no driver owns more wins (14) and top-10 finishes, and he’s tied with Harvick for most top fives (53).What’s missing from Logano’s résumé is a championship, something he came close to capturing two years ago and may have taken last season were it not for Matt Kenseth’s foolish act of frontier vengeance. If you’re a believer in momentum, that’s also on Logano’s side as he led the most laps at Texas two weeks ago and is coming off a win last Sunday at Phoenix International Raceway.

Why he won’t win: Considering intermediate tracks haven’t been Penske’s area of strength this season, and a Ford driver hasn’t won at Homestead since 2004, Logano has a couple of sizable hurdles ahead of him. That doesn’t mean he cannot earn a first ever championship, but overcoming JGR’s pair of Toyotas and Johnson’s Chevrolet is a tall task.