NASCAR mailbag: Does Dale Earnhardt Jr. need to win at Daytona to make the playoffs?

Each week, SB Nation’s NASCAR reporter Jordan Bianchi answers your questions about the latest news and happenings within the sport. If you have a future mailbag question, email jordanmbianchi@gmail.com.

Isn’t NASCAR suspending crew chiefs for missing lug nuts getting a bit ridiculous? This seems to be happening every week and really what’s the point? Pretty soon Kyle Busch is going to have the janitor at Joe Gibbs Racing on top of his pit box calling the race.

— Paul

Believe it or not, the current system is actually less silly than what was in place for much of last year when near-weekly crew chiefs were being suspended for a race when just a single lug nut was discovered loose or altogether missing. At least now, it takes multiple unsecured lug nuts to earn a suspension.

Let’s not forget: NASCAR had instituted a rule where teams could use discretion on how many lug nuts to fasten on a given pit stop. Except many drivers, most vocally Tony Stewart, balked at the rule saying it posed a safety risk as cars were being sent back onto the track with only three lug nuts on each wheel. Stewart even racked up a $35,000 fine for comments NASCAR thought questioned its integrity regarding matters of safety.

Complying with its competitors wishes, NASCAR later modified the rule, which now gives crew chiefs some leeway. But as we’ve seen, even then there are still penalties regularly handed out.

If there is a possible amendment to the current rule, it’s that instead of a crew chief being suspended, NASCAR enacts a different sanction. Loss of pit selection or a set of tires, or a one-lap penalty to start the following week’s race all seem like appropriate deterrents. Because let’s be honest, suspending a crew chief rarely has the intended effect as technology allows a crew chief to still be heavily involved in chassis adjustments, pit strategy, and the like throughout the weekend and even during the race itself. Taking away a set of tires or making a driver start the race on pit road would be much more of a punishment.

Looking at the races ahead, I don’t agree that Dale Earnhardt Jr. has to win at Daytona to make the playoffs, as he could easily win any of them to get in. So why then do you and others keep calling Daytona a “must win?”

— Joey

Absolutely there are a slate of good tracks upcoming where Earnhardt traditionally runs well indicating a victory is conceivable. In the nine races following Daytona, he owns multiple victories at four tracks (Michigan, Pocono, Bristol, and Richmond), which inspires confidence that the opportunities may be there.

Past performance, however, doesn’t guarantee future results, and the recent form of the No. 88 team is such that barring fluky circumstances, a win could be difficult to obtain. Sure, Earnhardt is coming off consecutive top-10 finishes for the first time this season. But let’s keep in mind he’s led all of 10 laps — eight of which happened in the Daytona 500 way back in February.

Hence why Daytona carries such importance and why anything short of a victory Saturday night will in all likelihood spell the end of Earnhardt’s playoff hopes. Because while crew chief Greg Ives may have found some more speed, and the additional seat-time Earnhardt has been getting in Chevrolet’s simulator is paying off, this still appears to be a team not poised to win at a non-restrictor-plate track.

Is this the craziest silly season in recent memory? I don’t remember a time when so many big names are being rumored to switch teams.

— Dean

The potential exists for a considerable shake-up. Kurt Busch, Matt Kenseth, Brad Keselowski (he’s expected to re-sign) and Danica Patrick are each in contract years, while Ryan Blaney and Erik Jones are in line to shift from affiliate programs to parent teams. Then on the team side of the equation, there are certain openings at Hendrick Motorsports and potential openings at other upper echelon organizations like Stewart-Haas Racing, Joe Gibbs Racing, and Furniture Row Racing.

As written in this space a week ago, the big domino in play is what happens with Kenseth and whether JGR brings him back or instead elects to bring Jones in-house. If Kenseth returns, he’s off the list of potential Earnhardt replacements at Hendrick and it indicates Jones will remain with FRR for another year.

How SHR’s lineup comes together also bears watching. Kevin Harvick and Clint Bowyer are under contract, however Busch is in a contract year (SHR holds the option), and Patrick has spoken candidly how frustrated she is amid another frustrating season with little on-track success.

That’s two prime seats in A-quality equipment that could be vacant. And with the team needing additional funding beyond co-owner Gene Haas’ willingness to spend — Bowyer and Patrick each lack anchor sponsorship — it might prompt SHR to juggle its driver roster.