NASCAR at New Hampshire preview: Joey Logano surprisingly on playoff bubble

When the season began it seemed a foregone conclusion Joey Logano would be among the 16 drivers to qualify for the Monster Energy Cup Series playoffs. It wasn’t optimism, merely reality.

After all, since joining Team Penske in 2013 Logano had earned a postseason berth rather easily, and in two of the past three years was one of four drivers to advance to the virtual winner-take-all championship round. A first-ever Cup title was a matter of when not if, and likely in the immediate future.

But instead of fine-tuning and preparing for another deep playoff run, Logano finds himself in unfamiliar territory with eight regular season races remaining. Surprisingly, he’s currently on the wrong side of the cut line entering the Overton’s 301 Sunday at New Hampshire Motor Speedway (3 p.m. ET, NBCSN), seven points behind Matt Kenseth for the final provisional transfer spot.

“This isn’t what you expect when you start the season,” Logano said. “You go out there expecting to win the championship and the playoffs -- you just assume you would be there. I still assume we are going to be there. We just have to work hard to get there.”

Compounding the frustration, Logano should’ve for all intents and purposes locked himself into the playoffs when he won April 30 at Richmond Raceway. Yet officials determined the rear suspension on the No. 22 Ford wasn’t legal and declared the victory encumbered, allowing Logano to keep the win but prohibiting him from using the win to secure postseason eligibility.

Coinciding with the heavy sanctions, which included crew chief Todd Gordon serving a two-race suspension, Logano’s performance fell off a cliff. Through the season’s first nine races he only finished worse than sixth once. In the nine races since, his average is 21.7.

Not coincidently, one of the preseason championship favorites has gone from being firmly positioned to make the playoffs to being squarely on the bubble.

“The last few years you are thinking about winning it,” Logano said. “Right now, we are thinking about needing to get in first. The mindset has changed a little bit but that is just a situation that we are in after a few bad races. Our team is still capable of winning.”

And as tends to happen when a driver goes into a slump immediately following a nonconforming part being found on their car, there have been whispers Logano’s early season success wasn’t on the up-and-up.

“After Richmond, we had three crashes in a row,” Logano said. “There were some different modifications to our bodies that NASCAR started regulating that took some performance away from our cars and we have to try to make that up. That is kind of the biggest thing right now. We are trying to figure out how to make that speed up.

“It is nothing from Richmond that would affect what happened. It is easy to assume that though, I agree. If I was on the outside looking in, I would say the exact same thing, but it is not. I promise you that. It is not that simple. It never is in our sport.”

Recent weeks have indications that a turnaround is afoot. Logano’s finished 12th or better in three of the past four races. Still, though, better results are needed.

Despite an eight-place effort last week at Kentucky Speedway, Logano actually lost four points to Kenseth, who finished 17th after crashing in overtime. The gap widened because Logano didn’t finish in the top 10 in the first two stages, whereas Kenseth was sixth and third.

What can change Logano’s playoff outlook from uncertain to absolute is to win one of the eight regular season races left -- and not have the win be encumbered. How quickly his prospects can flip isn’t lost on the 27-year-old driver, whose 16 victories since 2013 ranks third-best during that span.

“This team rises to the occasion for sure,” Logano said. “When the pressure is on, they show up. It is just a matter of time before that happens.”