It was the NASCAR equivalent of a football team attempting to overcome a deficit in the waning seconds by repeatedly chucking deep bombs in the hope it will get lucky and score the go-ahead touchdown.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. knows he must gamble to make Cup Series playoffs
To qualify for the playoffs in his final year before retiring, Dale Earnhardt Jr. will have to win one of the seven remaining regular season races.
Photo by Chris Trotman/Getty Images
That was the situation Dale Earnhardt Jr. encountered Sunday at New Hampshire Motor Speedway and will face in the seven remaining Monster Energy Cup Series regular season races. Buried in the standings (21st), 173 points behind Matt Kenseth for the final provisional transfer spot into the 16-driver playoff field, Earnhardt’s only avenue to qualify for the playoffs is to win.
Earnhardt had a car good enough to finish somewhere in the back half of the top 10 at New Hampshire. But that result, while respectable, wasn’t going to get NASCAR’s most popular driver into the playoffs in this his final season before retiring from full-time competition.
So crew chief Greg Ives made the smart play. He gambled, doing the opposite of what those ahead of him did when a caution waved with 38 laps remaining and kept his driver on the track instead of pitting. The decision vaulted Earnhardt, who had 12 laps on his tires, into the lead but with faster cars with fresher tires directly behind him.
Not an enviable position, though considering the circumstances, understandable. Anything short of a win means little in the grand scheme. And it’s why when the gambit failed — Matt Kenseth and Denny Hamlin quickly passed the No. 88 car — Earnhardt didn’t rant or race with finishing 18th. Points carry almost no value to him at this juncture of the season, which he fully understands. It’s why even a few days later, he fully supported the go-big-or-go-home philosophy his Hendrick Motorsports team has embraced.
“Months and months down the line, I’m not going to remember running 10th or 18th or 19th [at New Hampshire],” Earnhardt told reporters Tuesday (via ESPN.com) at the NASCAR Hall of Fame where he unveiled his Southern 500 throwback paint scheme. “Winning is all that matters, and I don’t remember too many of the races where we didn’t finish in the top five.
“That’s not really grinding my gears too much.”
This isn’t how Earnhardt envisioned his final season unfolding. Similar to how Jeff Gordon and Tony Stewart were able to have a fitting sendoff with each recording memorable victories, Earnhardt hoped to experience the same kind. At a minimum, he expected to make the playoffs, not to be on the outside looking in and with his postseason chances getting smaller with each passing race.
But this is the reality Earnhardt finds himself in. Most weeks, the No. 88 car has lacked speed and the consistency has been absent. On the season, he’s got only four top-10 finishes compared to seven finishes of 30th or worse. He’s led a mere 24 laps.
“It’s just not having speed,” Earnhardt said. “We want some speed.
“We obviously know some other teams have got a lot more speed than us right now.”
And until Hendrick can overcome its deficiencies and give Earnhardt more oomph, Ives will be forced to rely on strategy to try and snag a win. Everything on is on the table even if it may seem outlandish — much like staying out on old tires at New Hampshire while the rest of the field pits.
“We have to win, so we have to gamble when we can,” Earnhardt said. “[New Hampshire] is not the last time you’re going to see that kind of gamble from us before the playoffs.”
Exactly what a team must do when they can’t beat the competition straight up. Think outside the box and hope to get lucky because it’s playoffs or bust.
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