NASCAR at Pocono preview: Cup Series playoff picture coming into focus

Like many within the NASCAR garage, Clint Bowyer was happy to see Kasey Kahne win the Brickyard 400 Sunday at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. The popular veteran had endured a nearly three-year winless drought that’s called into question his job status with Hendrick Motorsports.

But Bowyer admittedly acknowledges that while it was good to see Kahne back in victory lane, the outcome selfishly had a negative impact on his own playoff chances. Kahne is the 12th driver to lock themselves into the 16-driver playoff field by virtue of winning, leaving just open spots with six regular season races remaining.

The first driver on the wrong side of the cut lines is the winless Bowyer, who Kahne knocked from the provisional postseason grid. Had Kahne not snapped his 102-race slump, Bowyer would still hold a playoff position instead of being 33 points behind Matt Kenseth, possessing the final transfer position entering the Overton’s 400 Sunday at Pocono Raceway.

The deficit facing Bowyer isn’t insurmountable, though the gap is such unless he begins trimming it he’ll face a situation where he’ll need to win before the regular season concludes. Still, a win is his surest path to gain postseason eligibility.

“We think we have to win now if we want to make the playoffs,” Bowyer said. “We’ve always thought that, but what happened at Indy makes us even more certain. Winning this weekend in Pocono would make the rest of the summer a lot more fun.”

If Bowyer doesn’t win, and were a season-first winner to emerge over the next five races, then his road to the playoffs becomes even more arduous. Chase Elliott is the second-to-last transfer position, 22 points above Kenseth.

A replay of last year’s second stop at Pocono offers an example of the tumult that could occur. With fog rolling in, Chris Buescher gambled on track position and stayed out while most of the leaders pitted. It paid off when the race couldn’t be resumed, jumping the then-rookie who had been 31st in points into the playoffs.

Upcoming races on the Watkins Glen International road course (Aug. 6) and the half-mile Bristol Motor Speedway (Aug. 19) short track offer further prime opportunities for an unexpected winner to punch their playoff ticket.

Dale Earnhardt Jr., who’s had a frustrating final season as a fulltime competitor, is eyeing Pocono, Michigan International Speedway (Aug. 13) and Bristol has races where he could win. Instead of a successful last year before retirement, NASCAR’s 14-time most popular driver has finished 30th or worse in eight of 20 races and finds himself 22nd in the standings.

Whereas Bowyer could still use consistency and strong finishes to qualify for the playoffs, there’s zero misperception about the realities of Earnhardt’s situation. It’s either win or don’t get in.

“Michigan, that’s a good track for us,” Earnhardt said. “Bristol? I could probably win there. … You’ve got to keep trying. I think here and Michigan are tracks that I have obviously have got some wins, recent wins at, so there is going to be some more expectations going into those or more confidence going into those.”