2017 NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series playoff preview

Over the next 10 weeks, 16 drivers will vie for the Monster Energy Cup Series championship. NASCAR’s annual postseason knockout format will again see four drivers eliminated every three races, while a win automatically advances a participant to the next bracket, culminating in a one race best-finish-wins-the-championship finale Nov. 19 at Homestead-Miami Speedway.

Will Chevrolet and Ford be able to keep pace with Toyota?

Martin Truex Jr. of Furniture Row Racing dominated the regular season by winning four races and leading the series in stage wins, points, top-10 finishes, and laps led. His quasi-teammates from Joe Gibbs Racing, Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin, combined to win four of the past eight races.

This trio gives Toyota three legitimate championship contenders, and the advantage the manufacturer holds isn’t lost on the competition. Chevrolet- or Ford-supported drivers have struggled to keep pace on a week-to-week basis, with only Chip Ganassi Racing’s Kyle Larson showing the capability of consistently outperforming Toyota’s triumvirate.

“At this moment, there’s really no reason for Toyota not to have all four spots going to Homestead,” said Brad Keselowski, driver of the Team Penske No. 2 Ford.

Toyota’s perceived advantage was apparent Friday in practice and qualifying for Sunday’s playoff-opener at Chicagoland Speedway -- Busch, Hamlin and Truex swept the top-three positions -- which compelled Keselowski to voice his displeasure that NASCAR hadn’t taken action to level the playing field.

“At the start of the year, we were at the top of the cycle,” Keselowski said. “And at this moment, we are not where we need to be. With respect to that, we were at the top and it seemed like there were a lot of rules changes us to slow us down and now you have cars that are so much faster than the field and the complete inaction by [NASCAR].”

Keselowski’s comments didn’t sit well with Busch, Hamlin and Truex’s crew chief, Cole Pearn, all of who offered rebukes. Busch and Hamlin were especially pointed in their responses, dismissing both Keselowski and the notion it had some unfair superiority over the competition.

“He’s an idiot anyways, we all know that,” Busch said. “You don’t hear anyone else complaining like he is -- it’s just one guy. We weren’t complaining when they were fast and they won the championship knowing what they were doing, we had to go to work and figure it out. It just seems like those things aren’t happening.”

The superiority is similar to a year ago when the manufacturer rolled into the playoffs on a tsunami of success with Truex, Busch, Hamlin, Matt Kenseth and Carl Edwards winning 50 percent of the regular season races, leading some to believe Toyota might grab all four spots in the championship race.

But while Busch and Edwards did advance to the title round, the overwhelming dominance rescinded. And ultimately, it was Jimmie Johnson driving his No. 48 Chevrolet to the championship, with Ford’s Joey Logano second.

“It’s tough to go into the playoffs the favorites,” Hamlin said. “We’ve been on both sides of it. When the expectations are high, you got a big lead like you see out there on that board, you tend to play defensive a little bit. I think the challenge is having the lead and keeping it.”

Can Jimmie Johnson and Hendrick Motorsports again flip the switch?

Just as Toyota has assumed a similar role to the one played in the 2016 postseason, Hendrick Motorsports is doing the same as it again comes into the playoffs slumping and not at all resembling the powerhouse it’s supposed to be. Its four drivers have a combined four top-10 finishes and 24 laps led over the past six races. That considerable lack of speed gives the impression Johnson, Chase Elliott and Kasey Kahne won’t be serious factors. (Dale Earnhardt Jr. failed to qualify for the postseason.)

Except, of course, this was the widespread belief last year, then all Johnson did was win a playoff-best three races en route to win a seventh Cup championship, tying the all-time mark shared by Richard Petty and Dale Earnhardt.

So is the Hendrick summer swoon because the team fell behind, or a team prioritizing on being at its best during the 10 most important races of the year? The answer might be a bit of both.

“We have worked really hard to not let [another slump] happen in 2017, but dammit it did again,” Johnson said. “So, the one thing that is after the summer is the fall, and we always get hot in the fall. We are certainly hoping for more of the same.”

What is not in question is whether one should dismiss Johnson’s chances to win a record-breaking eighth title. As Johnson and mastermind crew chief Chad Knaus have continually demonstrated, they know how to rise to the occasion in the playoffs even when the No. 48 Hendrick team isn’t operating at its peak.

It cannot be stressed enough how well the 10-race playoffs set up for Johnson, whose four winningest tracks host races. He used that formula last year, winning a second round race at Charlotte Motor Speedway, a third round race at Martinsville Speedway and the championship finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway.

“Never count ‘em out, nope,” Busch said. “I’ve had friends over the years that have worked for Hendrick and have worked with the 48 team, they always say, ‘Man, when the first Chase race comes, Jimmie’s got a switch that he flips on, and it’s on.’ So we’ll see if he can do it again. He has before, right? So don’t count him out.”

How will the new points system factor?

The format on how NASCAR goes about crowning its champion may be unchanged. However, the points system and how points are distributed within the knockout format is radically different and will have a significant impact.

The advent of stage-racing provided drivers opportunities to collect points that are added to their total in each round. In essence, regular season success for the first time is now awarded in the playoffs, which can factor heavily in who transfers to the next round and who misses out.

This gives Truex, who won four races and a series-best 18 stage wins along with the regular season points title, a sizeable advantage. The Furniture Row driver will start the playoffs 20 points up on second-place Larson, and Truex’s bonus point accumulation is such that barring a complete collapse he’s a near-lock to make it to the third round.

“Obviously, Truex is probably 80 percent chance of making Homestead,” Hamlin said. “I think only two detrimental races in one round could possibly knock him out, but he’s liable to win the third one.”

Larson and Busch, the third seed, also are well positioned to go on deep playoff runs because of how they performed during the regular season. At least this is the conventional wisdom. Surely there will be aspects of the new system that will come to the forefront that weren’t realized before, and a driver buried in the standings can negate any deficit by winning and automatically advancing.

“I think it’s going to be six or seven guys that are going to be very close to getting into that final four,” Hamlin said. “Which one? It’s just which one has the right break, which one gets the caution at the right time that they need it to either take him in or take him out.”

Martin Truex Jr.

If he can execute anywhere close to what he did during the regular season, Truex should have little issue making it to South Florida with a shot at a first-ever championship.

Kyle Busch

After an uneven start to the season, Busch was excellent in the second with two wins and eight other finishes inside the top 10 over the past 13 races. Without a track in the playoffs where he’s not capable of winning, a second championship in three years is realistic.

Kyle Larson

Lacks consistency to outrun the Toyotas every week, and the fourth-year driver is still susceptible to the occasional mistake. Nonetheless, he’s fast and quite proficient on intermediate tracks, which make up half the playoff schedule including the finale at Homestead.

Jimmie Johnson

Yeah, he’s had a down year by his lofty standards with career-lows in top fives, top 10s, average finish and laps led. Still, never bet against the defending and seven-time champ. He’s more than earned the benefit of the doubt.

Kurt Busch began the season with a bang, winning the Daytona 500 and having a victory lane celebration with Rob Gronkowski. Then, Busch largely underwhelmed with just a lone top-five in the subsequent 22 races. But the 2004 Cup champion closed out the regular finish with a flourish, posting three consecutive finishes of fifth or better. If he can continue that surge, a second title becomes a possibility.

Talladega Superspeedway may no longer be the Round 2 elimination race, which diminishes drama to some degree. Still, the restrictor-plate track is the one venue in the postseason that gives every title-eligible participant a pit in their stomach due to its propensity for chaos, where drivers are often at the mercy of circumstances beyond their control.

Drivers: 16

Thirteen drivers qualified for the Chase by winning a race during the regular season:

Martin Truex Jr
Kyle Larson
Kyle Busch
Brad Keselowski
Jimmie Johnson
Kevin Harvick
Denny Hamlin
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Ryan Blaney
Ryan Newman
Kurt Busch
Kasey Kahne
Austin Dillon

The remaining three spots were determined off points:

Chase Elliott
Matt Kenseth
Jamie McMurray

Rounds: 4

The first three rounds are each comprised of three races. The final championship round is just a single race.

Elimination races: 3

Four drivers are eliminated from contention each round, based on having the four lowest points totals. Win a race to advance to the next round automatically.

Champions: 1

Whichever of the four drivers still in the Chase finishes highest at Homestead-Miami Speedway wins the championship.

Round 1 (16 drivers)

Sept. 17: Chicagoland Speedway, 3 p.m., NBCSN

Sept. 24: New Hampshire Speedway, 2 p.m., NBCSN

Oct. 1: Dover International Speedway, 2 p.m. NBCSN

Round 2 (12 drivers)

Oct. 18: Charlotte Motor Speedway, 2 p.m. NBC

Oct. 15: Talladega Superspeedway, 2 p.m. NBC

Oct. 22: Kansas Motor Speedway, 3 p.m. NBCSN

Round 3 (8 drivers)

Oct. 29: Martinsville Speedway, 3 p.m., NBCSN

Nov. 5: Texas Motor Speedway, 2 p.m., NBC

Nov. 12: Phoenix International Raceway, 2:30 p.m. NBC

Championship Race (4 drivers)

Nov. 19: Homestead-Miami Speedway, 2:30 p.m. NBC