Don’t count Jimmie Johnson out in his pursuit of record 8th NASCAR Cup championship

If they wanted to, the 15 drivers competing against Jimmie Johnson when NASCAR’s playoffs begin this weekend would have reason to think the defending Monster Energy Cup Series champion won’t successfully retain his title.

After all, Johnson just completed a regular season where he recorded career lows in top-fives, top-10s, average finish, and laps led. He may have won three times, but those wins also accounted for his only top-five finishes in 26 races. Not exactly the kind of sustained high-level consistency indicating he and his Hendrick Motorsports No. 48 team are ready to embark on a title run.

Except none of Johnson’s competitors is willing to dismiss his chances of winning the championship this season; they’re too wise. They’ve seen how this story plays out before and it usually ends with Johnson holding the Cup trophy.

“Never count ‘em out, nope,” said 2015 Cup champion Kyle Busch, the No. 3 playoff seed. “I’ve had friends over the years that have worked for Hendrick and have worked with the 48 team, they always say, ‘Man, when the first [playoff] race comes, Jimmie’s got a switch that he flips on, and it’s on.’ So we’ll see if he can do it again. He has before, right? So don’t count him out.”

It was just a year ago that Johnson came into the playoffs in much the same position he finds himself now. Hendrick as a company was slumping, its cars uncharacteristically not fast enough to challenge for wins. Johnson himself would go 24 races between victories, an eternity for a man currently tied for seventh on the all-time wins list.

But when the playoffs started, it was just like Busch said. Johnson, crew chief Chad Knaus, and the entire Hendrick organization seemingly flipped a switch. Johnson led a race-high 118 laps in the opener at Chicagoland Speedway, only for a late pit road speeding penalty to derail his victory bid.

Johnson eventually broke through and won a race in the second and third rounds, the latter advancing him into the four-driver championship finale where he prevailed thanks to a sensational restart with two laps remaining. It was his seventh title, tying the all-time record shared by Richard Petty and Dale Earnhardt.

Not bad for a driver many figured was destined for an early elimination.

Thus why there is no writing off Johnson this year, even if many of the same issues that hampered him during the 2016 regular season have done so again this regular season. His last win came on June 4 at Dover International Speedway, and in the 13 races since, he’s finished no better than eighth. His average finish on the year is a pedestrian 16.7, which is 16th-best overall and trails four drivers who didn’t even make the playoffs.

Most indicative about the current state of the No. 48 team: Johnson hasn’t led a lap in the past nine races. Not a single one.

“We have worked really hard to not let it happen in 2017, but dammit it did again,” Johnson said. “So, the one thing that is after the summer is the fall and we always get hot in the fall. We are certainly hoping for more of the same.”

Which is why despite the apparent lack of speed and absent consistency, Johnson cannot be overlooked. Knaus has fine-tuned being able to have his Chevrolets humming come the most important races of the year at the expense of some lackluster races during the summer.

“He’s the guy you have to watch for no matter what, no matter what track you are at, especially when it’s late in the season they come up with ways to win and be up front,” said Kasey Kahne, Johnson’s teammate and the No. 13 playoff seed. “… They definitely weren’t the fastest last year, but they made it work and Jimmie figured out how to win the championship and that is really all that matters.”

Whether that approach can still be effective with this, the first year of NASCAR altering its playoff structure to better award regular season excellence, remains to be seen. Johnson enters the playoffs trailing point leader and regular-season champion Martin Truex by 36 points.

Until proven otherwise, though, Johnson’s still the one guy no one wants to square off against in the championship finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway.

“I don’t think you can ever count him out,” said Kevin Harvick, the No. 6 playoff seed. “Obviously, the performance hasn’t been what they want or what they need, but you almost have to laugh because you look at it and you would have said the same thing last year.”

What’s that saying about history repeating itself?