5 NBA Rookie of the Year contenders to challenge Cooper Flagg

Cooper Flagg is an overwhelming favorite to 2026 NBA Rookie of the Year, and no one else is even close. FanDuel has Flagg at -195 to win the award, and there’s only one other player with odds lower than +1000. It doesn’t take a gambling expert to know that if anyone other than Flagg wins Rookie of the Year, it’s going to be a major, major upset.

The No. 1 overall pick typically isn’t exactly a lock to win Rookie of the Year every season, though. Over the last seven years, only two No. 1 overall picks (Victor Wembanyama and Paolo Banchero) have won the award. When you consider that Flagg will be the youngest player in the NBA this season after only spending three years in high school, there’s at least a pathway to someone else pushing him for the award that doesn’t involve injury.

Flagg will probably win Rookie of the Year this season, but it felt like a good time to look at his biggest challengers for the award. Here’s our list of five NBA rookies who can steal Rookie of the Year away from Flagg this season, ranked by who is most likely to do it. Also check out our preseason MVP rankings.

This is my deep sleeper in the Rookie of the Year race. Hansen is currently slated as the backup to Donovan Clingan, and at the moment eternally injured fellow big man Robert Williams still hasn’t been cleared to play. Clingan is an obvious breakout player candidate this year, but he’s struggled to stay on the floor for even 30 minutes going back to his college days at UConn. Unless Clingan has made huge progress with his conditioning over the summer, it sure seems like there will be at least some role for Hansen. The Blazers shocked the NBA by reaching for the 20-year-old Chinese center with the No. 16 overall pick, but an impressive run in Las Vegas Summer League helped the public see Portland’s vision. Hansen is a really talented offensive center who will hit cutters as a passer, score inside, and will even take some threes. His defensive mobility is a concern, but the Blazers have so many good defenders next to him that they should be able to cover for the rookie early in his career. Hansen is still something of a mystery man after coming over from China that he could catch opponents off guard. I like this pick more and more for the Blazers as the season nears despite grading it as a D on draft night. I doubt he’ll share minutes with Clingan, but he should still have a role backing him up.

Last time we saw Walter Clayton Jr., he was carrying Florida to the national championship with one of the greatest March Madness runs in history. Clayton starts his NBA career as a 22-year-old after four seasons in college, and he’s in a prime position to hit the ground running with the Jazz. Utah dumped a quality veteran in Collin Sexton this summer in part to open up playing time for younger guards like Clayton. The former Gator as a signature skill to rely upon early in his rookie year with his pull-up shooting. Clayton generates a ton of power on his three-pointers off the dribble with easy range beyond the NBA line. His defensive and playmaking limitations shouldn’t be a huge deterrent on a tanking Jazz team that has an eye on getting a top pick in 2026. He’ll have competition in the rotation from Isaiah Collier and Keyonte George, but Clayton’s shooting and big game experience at the college level should serve him well from early in his NBA career.

Johnson is the aforementioned runner-up in FanDuel’s preseason Rookie of the Year odds. I can see the argument for him making a run at this award. The Wizards desperately need more offensive firepower in the lineup, and Johnson is an indefatigable gunner with a sweet three-point stroke and a developing mid-range game. He could be the best shooter among the rookie class this year with a deadly release on spot-ups and the ability to hit shots off movement. The Texas product is a major competitor, and he’s been drawing rave reviews from teammates early in training camp. My only concern is that the Wizards are going to win, like, 20 games this year, and it feels like it will take someone on a better team to unseat Flagg in the ROY race if he stays healthy. Johnson is probably going to be put the class’ best per-game numbers outside of Flagg, but his impact on winning will likely be muted, and that’s why he’s only No. 3 on this list.

Harper’s spot in the rotation as a rookie is a bit of a question mark with De’Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle already entrenched in the backcourt. The shooting questions facing all three mean it’s probably unlikely they play together, potentially relegating the No. 2 overall pick to a backup role at the beginning of the season. That’s okay: Harper’s driving ability and knack for below-the-rim finishing touch is so impressive that San Antonio won’t be able to keep him off the court. Harper has a gift for splitting double teams and getting to the rack, and he’s a good enough passer to find Victor Wembanyama on the lob when the defense converges on him. I’m in on the Spurs being a playoff team this season, and that’s going to give Harper the spotlight he needs to actually contend for the award. He needs to be closer to a 35 percent three-point shooter than a 30 percent shooter from deep to have a chance to win this, but I think he can do that. The rise of Wemby is going to generate a ton of attention this year, and Harper can ride that to challenging for Rookie of the Year.

Knueppel was Robin to Flagg’s Batman at Duke this past season, but he may be his biggest challenger for Rookie of the Year entering the season. The Hornets are almost always a disaster, but it’s easy to see the vision of Knueppel as the connective glue between LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller if the veteran duo can finally stay healthy. The No. 4 overall pick doesn’t need the ball to make an impact. He’s a knockdown shooter who can stress opposing defenses just with the threat of his jumper, and he’s really smart moving without the ball. I’d expect Knueppel to start from day one, shoot around 40 percent from three, and quickly endear himself to Ball as he hunts for assists. The East is wide open this year, and we saw the Detroit Pistons go from 14 wins to 44 wins just last season. Even if the Hornets don’t make that big of a leap, Knueppel is such a reliable offensive player that he can make a run at Rookie of the Year.