Heat Vs. Celtics Predictions: LeBron James-Paul Pierce Battle Should Decide Series
I do think that the first game will tell us how the rest of the series plays out. Miami desperately needs to win Game 1 to have a chance in this series. Not only would they surrender home-court advantage with a loss, but they would also kick-start the self-doubt process that has plagued them at times this year. Miami has had some great winning streaks, but when they lose, they tend to lose in bunches. They started 9-8, then won 21 of 22, lost four of five, won 12 of 14, lost five in a row, then closed by winning 15 of 18. Because they have been thrown together with so many new parts this season, they don’t have much of a foundation to fall back on when they start losing. They point fingers, sulk for a little while, then figure out something that works. But in a short playoff series, that’s not going to cut it. Boston, meanwhile, could win the series anyway if they lose Game 1, but they will give themselves an even better shot if they win.
Still, I am leaning Miami's way in this series. Boston won three of four in the regular season, but the conditions have changed. The Celtics can't really count on Shaquille O'Neal at this point, and his presence was huge in exposing Miami's weakness inside and setting screens to free up Ray Allen. Without that element, Boston loses its competitive advantage.
I suspect it'll be a low-scoring, defensive-oriented series. LeBron James will continue his recent trend against the Celtics: good but not spectacular with Paul Pierce on him, out of this world with anyone else guarding him. Rajon Rondo should have a big series, but I think Miami will do a better job on Allen without Shaq around to set screens and be a threat as a guy rolling to the basket. Kevin Garnett and Chris Bosh will probably cancel each other out, and Dwyane Wade should be better than he was in the regular season. Miami will lose at least one game because of poor crunch-time execution, and Boston will lose at least one game by more than 20 points because of Miami's hot-cold effect. Ultimately, it'll come down to James vs. Pierce, and I don't see LeBron losing that one.
The pick: Miami in 7.
