Grizzlies Vs. Thunder Predictions: Slowing Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook Key To Memphis Win

The hardest part about making a prediction for this series is actually accepting that we've gotten to this point. Don't get me wrong, I predicted the Memphis Grizzlies would beat the San Antonio Spurs (in seven games, actually), but beyond that never gave it much thought as to what would happen when we did beat San Antonio. For some, the first-round series was our NBA Finals. For a franchise who had never won a playoff series, let alone a game, toppling the Spurs meant we needed to actually amend our bucket list.

What stands in the way of the Grizzlies making a second highly improbable run in the playoffs is a somewhat retooled Oklahoma City Thunder team. True, Memphis took three of four from Oklahoma City during the regular season, but they've yet to face the Kendrick Perkins-Serge Ibaka frontline, which, believe it or not is more imposing than San Antonio's. The story changes, but ever so slightly. We still hold the advantage in the post, and winning the battle off the glass is going to be key if the Grizzlies want to make this an interesting series.

Of course I worry about Kevin Durant, but the key to beating the Thunder is accepting defeat in a war with Durant. Battles can be won, but not the war. Tony Allen will use his quick hands and active feet to hound Durant on defense, and while I expect KD to get his 30 points, the battle lies in offensive efficiency. I echo that sentiment in the fight against Russell Westbrook. I'll admit, I am prepared for him to torch Mike Conley on offense, just as he did during the regular season where he averaged 24.5 points on 47.2 percent shooting in four games. That's five percentage points north of his career field goal percentage. While the Grizzlies were able to disrupt Westbrook from setting the offense, forcing 4.3 turnovers per game, when he initiated the offense setting up his own shot he was spectacular. Conley is going to need a lot of help defense. They can't let Westbrook shoot 47 percent from the floor in this series.

Finally, the Grizzlies need believe that they can win on the road. That's no easy task against the Thunder, who were 30-11 at home during the regular season. Memphis shared a 30-11 home record, yet unlike the Thunder they won just 16 road games (Thunder won 25 on the road). While you always argue that a win is a win, it's no small fact that the only road game we won in our series against the Spurs was Game 1, when San Antonio was without Manu Ginobili.

After all of that, I believe that the Grizzlies can and will win this series. We still should dominate the post, despite the fact that the Thunder have added Perkins. At times throughout the playoffs our defense has been spectacular, and while we'll give up 60 points to Durant and Westbrook, forcing turnovers, disrupting the passing lanes and keeping the pressure on players not named Durant and Westbrook to step up and beat us is key -- force them into a Gary Neal moment, if you will. I also think that in the minds of many we've already won the playoffs, meaning we have nothing to lose in this series and can play as such. Honestly, I don't see us losing a home game and I can certainly see us picking off a non-Game-7 road game, which leads to my prediction: Grizzlies in 6.