By Lisa Rotter of Mavs Moneyball, SB Nation's Dallas Mavericks blog.
Lakers Vs. Mavericks Predictions: First Two Games In L.A. Key To Dallas’ Chances
The Dallas Mavericks were underdogs in a series in which they were the higher-seeded team. Their series victory was due in large part to the veteran nature of the team -- put their backs against the wall and the Mavericks can remain composed. That turned out to be their main advantage against the Portland Trail Blazers, a team against which the Mavericks matched up pretty evenly.
As for the Lakers, of their starters, only Andrew Bynum (six years) has been in the league fewer than 10 seasons. So that veteran advantage flies right out the window. And as for matchups, coach Rick Carlisle was quoted by the Dallas Morning News as saying, "These guys are bigger and stronger and they're more balanced in terms of their ability to spread the scoring load around. So it's a heck of a challenge." For this reason, the Mavericks will need to maintain their rebounding aggression, especially on the offensive end (read: Tyson Chandler must do work) if they hope to compete.
For the Mavericks, the key matchup lies between Dirk Nowitzki and Pau Gasol. If Dirk doesn't score, we have a big problem. And Kobe Bryant, as quoted by the Dallas Morning News, said, "It's a big challenge for Pau," Bryant said. "It's different than guarding anybody else that he's played. Dirk can post up, can face up, can handle and obviously he shoots the three ball. It's a big challenge defensively." The same, however, could be said for Dirk guarding Pau. This one could tip the scales either way.
And now, the question of the hour: Who will guard Kobe? DeShawn Stevenson generally handles him well, and now we have Corey Brewer to give him some assistance. Though considering Brewer's minutes in the first round, seeing him on the floor in crunch time is unlikely. Shawn Marion, will be asked to cover both Ron Artest and Lamar Odom, so he might not be as effective against Bryant. His rebounding will be vital, though, which goes back to Carlisle's emphasis on crashing the boards.
As for team scoring against the Lakers, it really comes down to the team finding a way to get multiple players on the scoreboard, preferably with more than one having 20-plus point games. The reason is this: when Dallas had their lone victory over the Lakers in January, Dallas scored 109. Five of their players scored in double figures, and there were three players with more than 20 points. Compare that to their two losses when they faced L.A. in March: Dallas only averaged around 87 points, and in each loss only three players were able to reach double figures.
As a realist, I’d say this series could really go either way. But as a fan, I’m going to put it in the books (realizing that I’m basing this on nothing but whimsy and hope) and say that the Dallas Mavericks can take this series in 7, but only if they win one of the first two games in Los Angeles.
Be sure to check out our Lakers vs. Mavericks hub for full series coverage. For more on the Lakers, visit Silver Screen And Roll. For more on the Mavericks, visit Mavs Moneyball.
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