Completely rational predictions for the NBA season
What’s the start of a season without bold calls that will look foolish in April?
Ronald Martinez
What’s an NBA opening night without in(s)ane predictions? We got together to suss out our thoughts on what will happen over the next 1,230 games, plus the postseason.
IN THE EAST
IS IT A 2-TEAM RACE FOR THE NO. 1 SEED?
Ziller: You have Tom Thibodeau's history of running his players ragged during the regular season plus the frontcourt depth, which should be a problem for most teams in the league. We don't know how David Blatt will attack the regular season, but you'd expect a transition period with all these new players and a new system at the very least. I think Miami will be good, but expecting them to put a bunch of energy into beating the Bulls and Cavs to the No. 1 seed seems mistaken.
Flannery: Yes, this is a two-team race and the only team in the East I could maybe see jumping in there is Washington. I’ll take the Bulls to get the top seed because they’re deeper and may be more motivated for the prize.
WILL THE NEW YORK TEAMS MAKE THE PLAYOFFS? WHICH WILL BE BETTER IN THREE YEARS?
Ziller: I could see the Knicks being a late playoff seed because of the offense and Carmelo Anthony, assuming the two things fit. The Nets continue to watch Brook Lopez with one eye closed, but I'd argue they upgraded at head coach by hiring Lionel Hollins. In three years though, the Nets might be in a strip-it-down rebuild as those fat contracts expire (and possibly under new management), while the Knicks should be putting the finishing touches on Melo's final runs at the trophy.
Flannery: With or without Brook, I think the Nets have enough to sneak into the postseason this year. Long-term, however, Brooklyn is one of the league’s biggest mysteries. It doesn’t seem likely that they’ll throw big money around anymore and they still owe Boston a couple of first rounders. The Knicks *should* have the better long-term future, assuming Phil is able to do what needs to be done, but we said the same thing about Donnie Walsh and look where that got us.
New Season Is Here
WHICH EAST TEAM TAKES A BIG STEP FORWARD?
Ziller: I believe in the Hornets. Lance Stephenson is just the type of player that offense needs, and he'll help the defense, too. Al Jefferson looked spry last season, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist has worked hard to fix his jumper and we assume Steve Clifford will have the defense in the top five. I actually think they can land the No. 4 seed.
Flannery: Washington has everything it needs to be a big player this year, provided Bradley Beal is able to come back strong. I don't think we've seen John Wall at his best yet, and have I mentioned how much I love the Paul Pierce addition? (I LOVE IT.)
WHICH EAST TEAM TAKES A STEP BACKWARD?
Ziller: Ignoring the Pacers and Heat, I think the Raptors might underwhelm. The team's veterans all had career years last season. Can you expect DeMar DeRozan, Kyle Lowry and Amir Johnson to all be that good again? That said, I could also see the Raptors getting the No. 3 seed again.
Flannery: You have more faith in the Hornets than I do. I’m worried about their size and whether they’ll be enough shooting to make a strong move. The Raps are probably due to take a slight step back this year but the Atlantic Division is so weak, no one will really notice.
WHO’S THE SLEEPER TEAM IN THE EAST, IF THERE CAN BE SUCH A THING?
Flannery: We haven't talked about the Hawks much this preseason, but before Al Horford got hurt they were cruising to a top-four seed. They didn't do much to upgrade, but getting Horford back is a major plus. Meanwhile, in Miami ... I know expectations are low, but that's still Chris Bosh, D-Wade, Luol Deng and a very good coach on the other side. I'd try and avoid them were I a team with championship hopes.
Ziller: I think Miami is dangerous because Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh are going to be playing pissed for a while. I also think the Knicks merit watching because of that offense.
WHO HAS THE BRIGHTER FUTURE: MILWAUKEE, PHILLY OR ORLANDO?
Flannery: In a vacuum I'd say the 76ers, but we really don't know about Joel Embiid (or Dario Saric or Nerlens Noel). Hell, we don't really know when Michael Carter-Williams is coming back of if he's even in their long-term plans. Give me Giannis and Jabari and let's roll.
Ziller: I actually really like the Oladipo-Elfrid Payton-Aaron Gordon core in Orlando, though I'm not sure Jacque Vaughn is their coach long-term or that there's much else beyond Nikola Vucevic.
WHO WILL MAKE THE PLAYOFFS?
Ziller: In order of my predicted seeds: Chicago, Cleveland, Washington, Charlotte, Toronto, Miami, New York, Detroit.
Flannery: Chicago, Cleveland, Miami, Toronto, Washington, Atlanta, Charlotte, Brooklyn.
***
IN THE WEST
CAN THE SPURS BE STOPPED, AND IF SO, WHO’S THE STOPPER?
Ziller: San Antonio is always ripe to be picked off early in the playoffs due to injuries or matchup problems. Never forget the Grizzlies. Dallas, Memphis and Oklahoma City pose the biggest threats in that sense. At their best, the Thunder are as good as the Spurs. The question is whether the Thunder can finally be at their best at the right time. I'm honestly not totally sure the Clippers can beat the Spurs in a seven-game series even if healthy.
Flannery: I’m riding with Oklahoma City this year but I’d like that pick a lot better if someone like Dallas or Memphis did the dirty work for them. Damn, the West is ridiculous.
Get to Know the Teams
Get to Know the Teams
WHO’S IN THE WEST FINAL FOUR AND WHO’S OUT?
Ziller: I believe in the Warriors and Grizzlies this season -- Memphis reminded us how damn good they are once Marc Gasol returned last year, and I think the new offense in Oakland will boost the Dubs. But the Clippers, the Spurs and the Thunder are all fully legitimate contenders, so I'll drop the Warriors out since they are the least-proven of the teams mentioned.
Flannery: I’ll keep the Warriors and drop the Clippers in a reversal from last year. When did the Clippers become the trendy pick, by the way? I’m with you on Memphis and I noticed neither of us have Houston.
WHICH REALLY GOOD WEST TEAM WON’T MAKE THE PLAYOFFS?
Ziller: I think the Suns might be left out again due to a lack of size and the pressure of increased expectations. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Blazers fall out.
Flannery: People are down on Portland, but I think the Blazers will be fine as a 47-50 win team. That leaves Phoenix (again), an improved Denver team and New Orleans, who would be a perfect sleeper in the other conference.
IS ANYONE CAPABLE OF BEING THIS YEAR’S PHOENIX, BESIDES PHOENIX?
Ziller: Does New Orleans count? I could see the Pelicans being this year's Blazers, actually: a team expected to be moderately good that is just totally awesome. "This year's Phoenix" means a team that is expected to absolutely stink but almost makes the playoffs. I think the top candidate for that is Sacramento. Because hope springs eternal and I'll never learn.
Flannery: Boogie for America!
HOW MANY TIMES WILL YOU WATCH NEW ORLEANS JUST FOR ANTHONY DAVIS?
Ziller: Assuming you mean "John Salmons" when you say "Anthony Davis," all of the times.
Flannery: Over/under has been set at 26.5. How is he not on national TV at least once a month?
WILL KOBE MAKE IT THROUGH THE WHOLE SEASON?
Ziller: Gosh I hope so. After five decades of Lakers supremacy, the nation needs to see this in all of its horrific glory.
Flannery: And it will get plenty of chances.
WHO WILL MAKE THE PLAYOFFS?
Ziller: San Antonio, the Clippers, Oklahoma City, Dallas, Memphis, Golden State, Houston and New Orleans.
Flannery: San Antonio, OKC, Clippers, Golden State, Houston, Memphis, Dallas and Portland.
***
QUICK HITTERSROOKIE OF THE YEAR
Ziller: Jabari Parker is the obvious choice. If there's an upset, Elfrid Payton seems like the best option since Victor Oladipo is going to miss some time.
Flannery: Parker probably. I like that Payton call.
MVP
Ziller: LeBron James by acclamation.
Flannery: You read it here first: Russell. Westbrook.
CONFERENCE FINALS
Ziller: The Thunder over the Spurs. The Cavaliers over the Bulls.
Flannery: OKC over Golden State. Cavs over Bulls.
FINALS
Ziller: Thunder in six. Russell Westbrook Finals MVP.
Flannery: Well, this is awkward. I have the same result so I’ll go OKC in seven with Durant taking Finals MVP.
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