When the San Antonio Spurs struggle in the playoffs, it's because one or two stars change the game through sheer force. Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and James Harden were too unstoppable for their air-tight defense in 2012. Stephen Curry's many pull-up jumpers were on their way to breaking San Antonio's schemes last season before an ankle injury zapped some of their effectiveness. The Mavericks came close to pulling off a monumental upset because their guards were hyper-aggressive coming off ball screens and Dirk Nowitzki was a threat from anywhere.
Damian Lillard needs to play without a conscience
Why the Portland Trail Blazers’ best chance to beat the San Antonio Spurs is for Damian Lillard to shoot as often as possible.
Chris Covatta
The Portland Trail Blazers have that kind of player in Damian Lillard. He bombs away from all over the court and has become better at getting to the rim. In a perfect world, he forces San Antonio's normally conservative pick-and-roll schemes to change because he gets hot.
NBA Playoffs
But to do that, he has to act like that kind of threat. Now’s not the time to lay back in the weeds and set up others. Now’s the time to shoot, shoot and shoot some more.
That's not what happened in the first half of Game 1. Lillard went just 2-of-7 with zero assists as San Antonio built a 26-point lead. More importantly, he took zero threes despite averaging nearly seven a game in the regular season and almost nine a game in the Blazers' first-round win over the Rockets. He got more aggressive in the second half, but by then, it was too late.
Credit should go to the Spurs, of course. They mixed up their pick-and-roll coverages, showing hard when LaMarcus Aldridge was involved, dropping back when Robin Lopez set the pick and switching on any transition drag-screening action involving any of the perimeter players. The different looks confused Lillard, even though the Spurs showed off many of the same ones in the teams' four regular-season contests.
The ball pressure applied by San Antonio’s guards was tremendous. Parker’s defense was poor in the Mavericks series, but this is textbook work chasing Lillard around.
Portland needs to do a better job executing these plays to screen those guards off. Some of that is Lillard, some of that is his bigs.
The Spurs also went to extra measures to make sure Lillard didn't get perimeter looks. Look at the step Parker takes here away from Mo Williams, an unusual move by a team that normally guards the corner three closely.
But there were also situations where Lillard had chances to fire away, and didn’t. The Spurs tried hard to force him right, because it’s much more difficult to pull up that way. They generally succeeded. Still, Lillard too often looked to make the simple play instead of a more unconscious one.
Take this play, for example. There's a small window for Lillard to step into a long three, but instead of taking it, he hesitates while driving, allowing Patty Mills to recover and draw an offensive foul.
And while this isn’t a three, it’s still a pull-up shot Lillard can take to force the Spurs to honor him. Instead, he kicked the ball to Wes Matthews, a perfectly defensible and perhaps even a good decision under normal circumstances, but also the one the Spurs want him to make because it makes him less aggressive.
Lillard is smart and should make adjustments in Game 2. Terry Stotts will, as well -- I'd recommend moving the ball screens higher on the court so Lillard has a better chance of stepping into threes.
In fact, both were starting to make the adjustments in the second half. I’m totally fine with this kind of shot selection from Lillard in this series, even if it wouldn’t fly with most players. Portland’s best chance to win is for Lillard to take that shot consistently, even if he’ll miss sometimes, like he did here before being bailed out by a phantom foul call.
Lillard also was better at taking his man off the dribble, particularly when he saw Manu Ginobili switched onto him in transition. The Blazers also started letting him isolate at the top of the key instead of sending a man to screen for him. These are adjustments worth exploring more in Game 2.
But most fundamentally, Lillard himself must be aggressive, even if it means taking some difficult shots. He must activate himself as a threat. He can make those pull-up threes and jumpers often enough to cause doubt to creep into San Antonio's head, and that in turn will create opportunities for others. Now the Spurs need to inch a step or two up on those plays, which in turn yields drives and spot-up opportunities for the dangerous Matthews and Nicolas Batum.
And better offensive opportunities will lead to more scores and more chances for the Blazers to set their defense, which was a disaster in Game 1. Portland scored on just under 38 percent of their possessions in Game 1, per Synergy Sports Technology, allowing San Antonio many opportunities to score in transition and secondary break situations. The defense will improve just by being involved in more half-court situations.
The old cliche is that point guards need to set everyone else up before going to get theirs. In this series, Damian Lillard needs to do the complete opposite.
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