After a year of clean health, the Portland Trail Blazers are once again ravaged with injuries. LaMarcus Aldridge is out for six to eight weeks after surgery to repair a torn ligament in his left thumb, joining Robin Lopez and (maybe) Nicolas Batum on the shelf.
Could the Blazers miss the playoffs because of LaMarcus Aldridge’s injury?
A playoff berth is by no means guaranteed when you consider Portland’s upcoming schedule without LaMarcus Aldridge, who is out for 6-8 weeks. But the Blazers do catch one huge break that should save them.
Steve Dykes-USA TODAY Sports
Portland has played exceptionally up to this point: the Blazers have the NBA’s fourth-best record at 31-13 and are currently the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference. But even with a huge head start, the Blazers’ upcoming schedule is unforgiving. Sixteen of their next 23 games come against playoff teams and nine of their next 16 are on the road. In fact, their next five games are all against Eastern Conference playoff teams, including four straight on the road.
A small consolation is that part of Aldridge’s injury will fall during the week-long All-Star break, giving him some extra recovery time. If he misses exactly six weeks, he’d be scheduled to return March 5 against Dallas. If it’s eight, he won’t return until March 20 when the Blazers play in Orlando.
| If Aldridge misses... | he'll miss... | Playoff teams | West playoff teams |
| 6 weeks | 16 games (9 road) | 11 games | 6 games |
| 8 weeks | 23 games (13 road) | 16 games | 8 games |
Let’s take the worse case scenario of 23 games and say Portland wins about half of them, going 11-12. That puts them 42-25 with a .627 winning percentage. If every West team continues winning games at their current rate, that would give them the No. 7 seed in the West.
Luckily for Portland, one huge thing has fallen in their favor. The Northwest Division is the weakest in the West, and Portland currently has an eight-game lead over the second-place Thunder. To make the playoffs, Portland only has to hold them off and win the division, which guarantees a top-four seed in the West playoffs (although it doesn’t guarantee home court advantage).
That’s important because the rest of the West is charging fast. San Antonio is looking to make a push with Kawhi Leonard back and Phoenix has bolstered their bench. If Oklahoma City can pass Portland, then those teams become a real problem. Even a 9-14 record without Aldridge puts them at 40-27 with a .597 winning percentage, just barely better than Phoenix. But as long as they can hold off the Thunder, Portland has a much easier path into the postseason.
Who can step up in Aldridge’s absence?
The injury problem for Portland extends beyond Aldridge. Lopez is questionable to return before the All-Star break with a hand injury and Batum left Thursday's game with a wrist injury that will require an MRI. Joel Freeland is also still out for Portland, further hurting their big man depth.
Aldridge finishes nearly 30 percent of Portland’s possessions with a shot, turnover or drawn foul, 11th in the league. The most pressure to replace what Aldridge brings will be on Portland’s backcourt of Wesley Matthews and (especially) Damian Lillard. Lillard can handle a bigger work load, but he’s already at a career-high usage rating himself (26.7). Usage rating often inversely correlates to efficiency, so Lillard’s 44 percent shooting from the floor will likely suffer with a bigger workload.
On a positional level, Aldridge's minutes will go to Thomas Robinson and Meyers Leonard, while Chris Kaman -- currently starting in Lopez' absence -- may see a small boost in playing time as well. Robinson is the better athlete and provides defense, while Leonard has the shooting to fake a half-decent Aldridge impersonation for short stretches of a game. The Blazers may also go small and play Dorell Wright at power forward, which they occasionally did when Aldridge missed time last year.
When discussing how Portland will cope, Blazer’s Edge said the bench has a responsibility to produce offensively to help take some of the weight away from Lillard and Matthews.
Offense-generators like CJ McCollum or Will Barton may be especially prized...more so if Batum is out. The Blazers will still run their system with the reserves but they’ll experience more of an “anything goes” vibe in which all contributions are good contributions until the roster settles into normalcy again. The bench responded fairly well against the Celtics last night. Opportunity awaits for any player who can step up and seize it.
Depending on Batum’s health, he’ll be crucial for Portland to stay afloat. He’s having a terrible season, averaging just 9.1 points on under 39 percent shooting from the field and 27 percent on three-pointers. Perhaps increased responsibilities and more of a role in the offense can help snap him out of his season-long slump.
So, will Portland still make the playoffs?
Because of their huge head start, the Blazers still have a good shot, especially if Aldridge comes back sooner than later.
Still, their 90-89 loss to Boston Thursday was exactly the type of game they have to win. Despite leading the entire fourth quarter, Portland let the lowly Celtics hang around just long enough for Evan Turner to nail a fadeaway game-winning three-pointer. The Blazers can't lose those games.
When Aldridge does return, he and Portland will face pressure to quickly return to the level of play we’ve seen from them so far this season. Struggling to pick up right where they left off is understandable, but it’s a luxury the Blazers won’t be able to afford if the Thunder move up faster than expected.
All stats courtesy of Basketball-reference.com.
See More:
