The Raptors made some big changes to their roster in the offseason in an attempt to shake things up after two first-round playoffs exits. Yet the biggest reason they have the East's fourth-best record at 12-7 is not the contribution of any newcomer, but the surprising leap Kyle Lowry is making at age 29.
Kyle Lowry is playing like the best guard in the East
Lowry’s standout performance in Atlanta on Wednesday was the latest example of a late-career breakout that we rarely see in this league.
After losing a lot of weight in the summer, Lowry has been the best guard in the East, averaging 21 points, six assists, five rebounds and two steals per game. He powered the Raptors to a comeback win Wednesday over the Hawks by scoring 22 of his 31 points in the fourth quarter. It was the kind of performance only the best of the best deliver.
Few were expecting the 10-year pro to find another gear. He had already showed significant improvement as he entered his prime, posting back to back 18-point, seven-assist seasons. He was a very good player, a key cog on some good Raptors teams and an All-Star game starter last year. That was supposed to be Lowry at his fully realized form, particularly because he declined after the break and was thoroughly outplayed by John Wall in Toronto’s four-game playoff sweep at the hands of the Wizards.
His dramatic weight loss, however, changed everything. Lowry is looking quicker and more explosive than ever while retaining the strength that characterized his game since entering the league.
That burst of speed wasn’t there in past seasons and it makes him a much more dangerous first option. He’s making the best of it by getting to the free throw line at a career-high level (12 free throws against the Hawks) after cutting down on mid-range jumpers and increasing the percentage of his shots coming at the rim.
He’s also taking more three-point shots, but his efficiency is actually up, as he’s connecting on a career-high 41 percent of his attempts from beyond the arc despite taking more field goals from there than ever.
One of the biggest knocks on the Raptors is their supposed lack of a true superstar. They simply lacked that dominant offensive player that could carry them, or so the thought goes. If Lowry keeps performing like he did against Atlanta, though, that certainly won’t be a problem anymore.
“Kyle just took over for us,” said DeMar DeRozan. “I told him, ‘Win the game for us,’ and that’s what he did.”
Toronto’s other big weakness last year was its mediocre defense, but Lowry is also making an impact there. The Raptors are allowing just 98 points per 100 possessions when he’s on the court, per NBA.com. He leads the league in steals and opponents are shooting over three percent below their average field goal percentage when he’s guarding them, per SportVU data. It’s not surprising that Defensive Real Plus Minus ranks him as the top point guard in the league on that end.
Lowry’s late career breakout was unexpected, yet unlike last year, it can be sustained. He’s simply doing everything that already made him a good player at an even higher level and is in better physical condition to prevent him from wearing down.
As long as he remains in great shape, he is the star that can lead the Raptors to the second round (and possibly beyond) for the first time in 15 years.
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