The Suns might be languishing near the bottom of the Western Conference this season, but third-year forward T.J. Warren has given them a breakout performance and has emerged as a key building block for a young Suns team with real potential to become a contender in the seasons to come.
T.J. Warren’s emergence has been a rare bright spot for the struggling Suns
In his third season, the Suns forward is finally finding his footing.
Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images
After failing to keep a regular spot thanks to injuries and youth in the past, Warren is averaging nearly 18 points, four rebounds, and two steals per game this year. The Suns may be just 4-11 but Warren has stepped forward as an essential player for the rebuilding Suns, contributing as a dynamic scorer and competent defender at a position they’ve failed to solidify over the years.
The Suns’ rebuilding project has allowed them to accumulate a wealth of young talent. Warren slots into a young, exciting Suns roster, along with Eric Bledsoe, Devin Booker, and Alex Len, as well as rookies Marquese Chriss and Dragan Bender. Warren’s rise makes this group particularly potent, as he is arguably the best scorer of them and fills a spot as the small forward or as a small-ball power forward that none of those other players can fill.
After averaging just under 23 minutes per night last season, Warren’s playing time has surged, with the forward averaging 32.4 minutes per game thus far this season. Warren lost time to a foot injury last season and also proven himself through his scoring prowess to be a more worthwhile starting small forward than former starter P.J. Tucker.
Warren has become more of a focal point in the Suns’ offense, allowing him to take a larger share of the offense. After averaging 7.5 shots per game in his first two seasons, Warren is hoisting more than 15 per game this year, which is ahead of All-Stars like Dwyane Wade, Kevin Love, and Paul Millsap.
There’s a reason the Suns have given him a larger role in their offense.
Warren scored just under 25 points per game in his final year at NC State, when he won the ACC Player of the Year award. While he didn’t get many chances in his first two years in the NBA, he made the most of limited playing time. Last season, when coming off the bench, Warren averaged 17.3 points per 36 minutes, a rate in line with what he has done this season as a starter.
Warren loves to take (and make) contested shots, particularly from mid-range and closer. Take a look at just how Warren scores in this video of his 30-point performance vs. the Thunder on Oct. 28. The 30-second sequence starting at the 38-second mark demonstrates just how potent a scorer he can be.
Perhaps this is why coach Earl Watson compares him to a young Paul Pierce.
With increased playing time comes increased responsibility, which has affected his shooting percentages. Nights like his 2-11 shooting performance against the Nuggets on Wednesday and his 4-17 outing on Nov. 4 vs. the Pelicans stand out as particularly egregious examples. Warren also is shooting just 31 percent from downtown, including 21.4 percent on three-point shots that NBA.com classifies as “open.” The same low arc that helps him up close can hinder his prospects as an outside shooter.
But if Warren can improve his three-point shot, he will become a more complete offensive player. There’s room for optimism here; he hit 40 percent of his threes last season, albeit in limited minutes.
Warren really made strides on the other end of the court
Defense was a weakness of Warren’s in the past, but not as much anymore. Warren’s 1.9 steals per game place him seventh in the league and far surpass his steals per game mark in either of the last two seasons.
Warren also has played a key role in anchoring the Suns’ perimeter defense after struggling earlier in his career. The NBA’s metrics indicate that he covers a lot of ground defensively, running the second-most miles per game while on defense in the league.
“Guarding the ball, we feel like he’s one of the best in the NBA at his position, and we feel like he’s going to continue to get better,” Watson told the Arizona Republic.
“I feel like I’m learning every time I’m out there playing a lot of minutes,” Warren added. “Just pressure them and get in their space. Just try to make them feel uncomfortable.”
Warren may never become an elite stopper, but if he continues to apply himself and play passing lanes, he should boost his defense to the point where he becomes passable on that end. For a scorer as adept as Warren offensively, that should be enough to get by.
Warren will get plenty of chances to get even better
The Suns already have accumulated several lottery picks on the roster, but Warren remains the only one of those who can slot in at small forward regularly. Beyond Tucker, who Warren has outplayed this season, no one else on the Suns roster can reasonably eat into his minutes. Warren will receive plenty of minutes to refine his game.
The Suns, as a rebuilding team, have the ability to remain patient with Warren even if he has a cold streak and allow him to work on becoming a more complete player. His numbers already have reflected major improvements in his game, and assuming he can work through the kinks and develop further, Warren will be filling it up for the Suns in the years ahead. Assuming he keeps up the scoring, he could be the player that joins Devin Booker in enabling Phoenix’s rise back to relevance.
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