The story of the Thunder’s Game 6 loss to the Warriors can be summed up in a single stat that was shared by ESPN’s Tom Haberstroh. Oklahoma City had 13 offensive possessions in the final five minutes of their eventual loss. Only one of those possessions featured more than one pass.
The Thunder won’t beat the Warriors if they stop passing like the end of Game 6
The Thunder’s inability to execute a decent half-court offense in crunch time cropped up again at the worst moment. If they lose Game 7 as well, they have nobody but themselves to blame.
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There are many reasons Oklahoma City fell at home in Game 6, from Steph Curry rediscovering his MVP touch to Klay Thompson putting on one of the greatest shooting performances in NBA playoff history. But the Thunder's inability to generate any semblance of a clean look down the stretch was just as crucial. Oklahoma City shot just 5-of-19 from the field in the fourth quarter and coughed the ball up six times over the final three minutes and 18 seconds.
“That really wasn’t (us) - hasn’t been us the last month and a half,” Thunder head coach Billy Donovan said, unprompted, to the media after the game. “I thought we got a little stagnant coming down the stretch.”
These issues are nothing new for the Thunder. They explain why Donovan was brought in to replace old coach Scott Brooks in the first place, and they also help explain why the Thunder finished 18 games behind Golden State in the regular season. The difference in these playoffs is that the Thunder have masked these flaws by playing sublime defense and using their length and speed to run opponents off the floor.
Game 6 was indeed an extreme example of a common problem. No team threw fewer passes per game than the Thunder this year, and only the Lakers averaged more time per touch, according to NBA.com's player tracking data. The problem has only worsened in the playoffs. Oklahoma City players are holding onto the ball for longer periods of time, tossing even fewer passes and attacking via isolations even more frequently, according to NBA.com. The narrative about Donovan finally enforcing the virtues of pinging the ball around the floor just isn't true.
Possessions like this one from Game 6, where Russell Westbrook transforms into a Jose Calderon clone whose sole job is to get the ball to Kevin Durant and get out of the way, are common in close games.
In the playoffs, the Thunder are scoring just 87.2 points per 100 possessions in the last five minutes of games that are within five points, according to NBA.com. For some perspective, the Sixers, the NBA’s worst offensive team this year, averaged 96.6 points per 100 possessions during the regular season. Oklahoma City’s crunch-time offense in the playoffs (where admittedly defenses tighten up) is nearly 10 points worse.
That’s what happens when your offense devolves into a system centered around your two stars essentially taking turns. This possession was far too easy for the Warriors to defend.
As you can see below, the Thunder still rely on Westbrook and Durant to take nearly every shot in these situations. On the whole, neither has come through.
Both players have struggled mightily in half-court situations this entire series. Durant is averaging 30.5 points per game this series, but that number has been largely inflated by 49 fast break points. He's shooting just 37 percent on shots that come with less than 18 seconds on the shot clock, according to NBA.com.
Some of these looks have been rushed and contested jumpers. Others have come off isolation sets, where the Warriors are given the opportunity to load up their help defense because they know exactly what's coming. Golden State is giving center Andrew Bogut more minutes since Game 4 because his presence makes these types of drives even more difficult.
Westbrook is also shooting just 37 percent on shots that come with less than 18 seconds on the shot clock, per NBA.com. That creates a devastating chain reaction that ultimately decides games. When the Warriors make shots, like they did in Game 6, they then limit the Thunder’s fast break looks. Limiting the Thunder’s fast break looks then keeps Westbrook and Durant in half-court situations, where both have struggled.
To pull off the upset in Game 7, the Thunder must leverage the powers of Westbrook and Durant into clean half-court looks throughout the entire game, but especially if things are tight in the fourth quarter. An inability to do so in the past cost Scott Brooks his job. Along with untimely injuries, this issue has kept Oklahoma City from breaking through.
Westbrook and Durant are both great, and so it’s possible that the Thunder can overcome an over-reliance on one-on-one play and win anyway. But it will take a perfect game from Oklahoma City in order to pull off the road upset over the defending champs. That means playing great defense like they have for most of the postseason, but also figuring out how to spring their stars open in the half court.
Now would be an ideal time to finally solve a years-long problem.
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