The Philadelphia 76ers own the No. 1 pick in the 2016 NBA Draft, and most signs point to them picking LSU's Ben Simmons as of now. Yet while Simmons may be the best player in the draft, adding another big man with no shooting range only makes their frontcourt more crowded. Thus, rumors surrounding possible trades of Jahlil Okafor and Nerlens Noel continue to swirl as the Sixers look to solve their frontcourt dilemma.
The 76ers will likely trade a big man, but which one should it be?
The 76ers need to make a decision about their frontcourt, and it’s likely either Jahlil Okafor or Nerlens Noel has to go. But which one will the 76ers choose?
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There's reportedly been plenty of interest in both players. Okafor trade rumors date all the way back to the trade deadline, and ESPN's Marc Stein and Chad Ford reported at the end of May that the Sixers would look into trades for either player leading up to this Thursday's draft. The Vertical's Shams Charania reported discussions with the Atlanta Hawks about Noel and Jeff Teague, although nothing came to fruition on that front.
Now, the Boston Celtics are the popular rumor target, which makes sense given those Okafor trade deadline rumors involved Boston. Former Providence coach Tim Welsh reported that Philadelphia is looking to nab the No. 3 pick from the Celtics in order to draft Providence's Kris Dunn, and either Okafor or Noel could potentially be used to acquire that pick.
While there's always plenty of pointless noise leading up to the draft, there's too much smoke for there not to be fire when it comes to the Sixers dealing one of their young big men. Okafor and Noel struggled together in their first year as a duo and are an awkward fit in general in today's NBA. With potentially Simmons, Joel Embiid and Dario Saric all in the mix as well, there aren't enough minutes to go around.
But who should go?
Why the Sixers should trade Okafor
Okafor, 20, once had No. 1 pick hype thanks to his advanced low-post game, but he ultimately fell to the Sixers at No. 3. On the surface, his nearly 18 points per game on 51 percent shooting to go along with seven rebounds look fantastic for a rookie.
But Okafor’s rookie campaign was marred with bumps along the way. There were several off-court incidents and a season-ending knee injury. The fit with not only Noel, but the 76ers’ system itself was questionable. Philadelphia wanted to play fast, but often got bogged down with Okafor on the floor. For as talented as he is offensively, the Sixers were significantly worse on that end with him on the court, and they played at a much slower pace.
However, Okafor’s defense is the major concern. While he has the size and length to be an adequate rim protector, he struggles to defend in space and doesn’t have particularly good defensive instincts. He simply doesn’t have the ideal skill set to anchor a defense in a league where it’s becoming more and more important to be able to protect the rim, stymie pick-and-rolls and switch onto smaller players.
Because of those defensive flaws and lack of a perimeter game, it’s hard to see an ideal fit with the other potential members of the Sixers’ frontcourt. We already saw the experiment with Noel fail miserably, and playing with a non-shooter like Simmons would further cramp spacing. Okafor and Saric wouldn’t be an ideal pair defensively, and both Okafor and Embiid are natural centers.
The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Keith Pompey has reported that Philadelphia is more inclined to trade Okafor, but the question is what kind of value they can get for him given his shortcomings.
Why the Sixers should trade Noel
Noel missed his entire first season in the league due to a torn ACL, but he showed his potential as a game-changing defensive talent when he finally did suit up for Philadelphia. He anchored a defense that was downright stingy with him on the floor in 2014-15, and he’s posted historic block and steal rates as a youngster.
On the flip side, his offensive game is still elementary. He doesn’t have much of a jump shot or a post game to speak of, so most of his value on that end comes off pick-and-rolls and attacking the offensive glass. At just 22 years old, there’s still time to develop his offensive skills, but his ceiling appears to be capped because of that. The Sixers may be wary of shelling out a massive contract extension this summer for a player with knee issues and a limited offensive game.
Still, Noel’s defensive ability gives him plenty of value, and the Sixers should be able to get more for him than Okafor given what’s been proven at the NBA level. Perhaps that’s even more reason to trade him.
Why the Sixers shouldn’t trade anyone
While common sense indicates that a trade should happen, there’s a case to be made that the Sixers should stand pat. Counting on Embiid is a risky proposition given he hasn’t even stepped on an NBA floor yet, and Saric’s status remains a question mark as well.
Philadelphia also has to be careful about making a questionable deal that could merely hurtle them back to mediocrity. The Teague trade, as reported, wouldn’t have been an ideal move given Noel’s potential and Teague’s age and contract status. Trading Okafor or Noel just to do it isn’t necessarily smart.
So, will they make a move?
Even with some of the uncertainties surrounding Embiid and Saric, those two players aren’t going anywhere and Simmons (if he’s the pick) will hopefully be that franchise talent the Sixers have been seeking. That means that at some point, a deal featuring either Okafor or Noel likely has to be consummated to balance the roster.
While there are never any guarantees in sports, I’m giving a trade of one of these players a 9/10 chance of happening this offseason.
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Two views on the 76ers and ‘the process’
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