NBA playoff projections: Why the Cavs and Warriors will be the No. 1 seeds in the end

As the well-worn cliché goes, most of the world doesn’t pay attention to the NBA until the Christmas Day pentuple-header extravaganza. This is increasingly a lie: the league is ascendant and ratings have been booming early this year as fans flock to watch the nightly escapades of a cadre of superstars.

Still, a focus on stars and moments allows us to ignore in the early going the actual race everyone’s here for: the push for the NBA playoffs. While we are still quite far away from April, the races in each conference have fully shaped up. We are increasingly sure of which teams will be involved in the playoffs, and which teams will be involved in desperate races to make the playoffs.

Here’s our moment-in-time look at what the playoff brackets could look like. Note that this isn’t a straight reflection of the current standings: it’s a mash-up of the standings and expectations for how the rest of the season will play out.

Cavaliers (1) vs. Heat (8)

Celtics (2) vs. Pacers (7)

Raptors (3) vs. Pistons (6)

Wizards (4) vs. Bucks (5)

Warriors (1) vs. Pelicans (8)

Rockets (2) vs. Blazers (7)

Spurs (3) vs. Nuggets (6)

Timberwolves (4) vs. Thunder (5)

Boston maintains a small lead on the scorching Cavaliers in the East, but Isaiah Thomas is due to make his Cleveland debut in a couple of weeks. While there are murmurs of a potential Gordon Hayward comeback, that’s far less certain and deep into the future. So in terms of players that will be added to the equation midseason, advantage Cleveland.

Unless these teams get active in the trade market, of course. There’s no chance Boston is going to flip either of its high-end kids — good lord, Jayson Tatum! — but the Celtics still have picks and other younger players to leverage. The sense is that Danny Ainge will be content to try out this core in the playoffs, count on growth from Tatum and Jaylen Brown, and hope for the best with Hayward.

For the Cavaliers, that Nets pick is not positioned to be nearly as good as it could have been — Brooklyn is the 10th-worst team in the league right now — and there’s no more certainty on LeBron James’ future plans than there was when Cleveland traded Kyrie Irving for the pick and Thomas.

All of that means that the Celtics and Cavaliers probably aren’t going to be making major splashes in the trade game.

Toronto is quietly knocking on the No. 1 seed’s door, just 3.5 games behind Boston and one game behind Cleveland. The Raptors are eminently competent and a true joy to watch. Clearly the third best team in the conference, and one that could credibly win the conference with some breaks.

The Rockets have been dynamite all season and unstoppable with Chris Paul. James Harden seems to be a little banged up, and he’s been very durable during regular seasons. But you have to wonder if Mike D’Antoni will begin to find spots to rest Harden more to preserve him for what should be a vicious playoff run.

Meanwhile, Golden State is keeping pace with Houston in the standings without Stephen Curry and sometimes Draymond Green. Kevin Durant is making a case that he’s more valuable than Curry, who had gotten some buzz as a possible No. 3 contender in the two-man MVP race. If Harden rests a little and the Warriors continue to be a buzzsaw with whoever is available, odds are Golden State gets the No. 1 seed again.

Like the Raptors, the Spurs are totally competent and a presumptive lock for the No. 3 seed. Like the Raptors, the Spurs could totally win the conference with the right breaks. Kawhi Leonard is slowly being integrated back into the flow. By March, the Rockets and Warriors could be terrified of San Antonio once again.

In the East right now, three games separate the seven teams fighting for five playoff spots. These projections have the Knicks and Sixers on the outside. Those two plus the Pacers and Heat are really the teams most at risk of missing out. Indiana has been shockingly good to the point where you wonder if the magic will wear off. New York isn’t getting nearly as much attention as you’d expect given their continued averageness in the face of sure mediocrity. Many, however, expected Philadelphia and Miami to be in this zone.

The Heat get a spot in these projections because they have the best combination of a solid roster, a solid identity, and a great coach. Indiana gets the other spot on energy and a certain je ne sais quoi. The Sixers are on the outside because they are truly bad when Joel Embiid doesn’t play (as we knew coming into the season). The wheels must come off of the Knicks at some point, too, one has to believe.

The West playoff race is ... a little boring? We have six teams in play for five spots, though generalized malaise is threatening to keep a few more mediocre squads in the race. (The Clippers are a five-game win streak from being in the thick of it.)

The Wolves have the best upside and record of these teams. (You would never know it from reading Wolves fans talk about this team.) The expected Thunder surge just might be upon us as Russell Westbrook is deferring much less. The Blazers and Nuggets are solid. The Pelicans are unreliable but exciting. The Jazz can only stayed glued together without Rudy Gobert anchoring the defense for so long. (What Utah has done already is commendable.)

Injuries — to Mike Conley and Blake Griffin, in particular — ruined this race. Perhaps some unlikely heroes can save it down the stretch.

Or, How The Basketball Gods Sent Nikola Mirotic Back Into Action To Punish The Bulls For Their Crimes

The Chicago Bulls had a clear path to the No. 1 pick and Luka Doncic (or Marvin Bagley or DeAndre Ayton or Michael Porter) ... and then Nikola Mirotic came back! The Bulls have reeled off six straight wins since Mirotic debuted. He and Bobby Portis, irony of ironies, have been unstoppable as a duo.

This is what happens when you sell a draft pick amid a rebuild. This is what happens when you treat players like cattle. This is what happens when you test the resolve of the Basketball Gods. They smite you.

Your new clubhouse leader for the worst record in the NBA is the 7-23 Atlanta Hawks, who are just frisky enough to put the scare into opponents, much like last year’s Brooklyn team. Alas, the Hawks are still awful most nights.

The 8-23 Mavericks are right there in this race, and the 9-21 Grizzlies are our surprise entrant in the race. It’s honestly impressive how bad Memphis has been without Conley.