The Celtics might have a better future without Isaiah Thomas

When Isaiah Thomas dropped 53 points in the Garden three weeks ago, he cemented himself as a Boston legend. Thomas turned a point guard duel against John Wall into a one-sided affair by taking over the fourth quarter and overtime in the Eastern Conference semifinals, scoring the most points in a Celtics playoff game since John Havlicek.

After Thomas was shut down for the rest of the postseason with a hip injury, the Celtics won Game 3 against the Cavaliers on Sunday without their starting point guard. It was a glimpse into a potential future for the team that doesn’t involve Thomas, and it was compelling.

But first, a few disclaimers.

The fact remains that the best future for Boston might be one without Thomas.

Despite all of his remarkable abilities, Thomas will always stand 5’9. He has developed dozens of tricks to make up for the height disparity he faces 100 percent of the time in the NBA, and he’s an incredible athlete. But there are times when Thomas is nearly a foot shorter than his counterpart.

Thomas’ offensive production speaks for itself. He’s an elite scorer with incredible pick-and-roll skills who is dangerous behind the three-point line. Put him on any team in the league and Thomas would probably improve their offense.

But defensively, Thomas is marked by constant mismatches. This isn’t just a problem because Thomas is a bad defender (he tries) and his man can shoot over him. It’s a problem because Boston constantly must game plan around the weak link in their defense, always trying to find the place where they can hide him to cause the least amount of damage. It must limit how the Celtics can play defense, and you never want to limit a team coached by Brad Stevens.

Thomas’ offense clearly outweighs his defensive weaknesses, which explains his role and his accolades. But when you play Thomas for 36 minutes every game, there is a ceiling on how good defensively you can be. Boston circumvented it well during the regular season — they were a top-five defensive team last regular season before falling to No. 12 this season — but best-of-seven playoff series take on a life of their own.

Despite their No. 1 seed, the Celtics aren’t among the elite yet. They outperformed their expected win total by five games and snuck past a lackadaisical Cavaliers in the final days of the regular season. (That reflects well on Stevens.)

If Rajon Rondo doesn’t get injured, maybe the Bulls beat Boston in the first round. In the next round, they took advantage of that home court to beat the Wizards in a tight seven-game series.

In the Eastern Conference finals, Cleveland annihilated the Celtics in Games 1 and 2 with Thomas playing. The lesson seemed clear: Boston isn’t a championship contender yet.

The Celtics are headed that direction, however. They’re both the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference and hold the No. 1 pick in the NBA draft. (Thanks, Nets!)

This year’s top prospect is a do-it-all point guard named Markelle Fultz. He hasn’t been marked as an elite defender, but he’s 6’5 with great athletic tools. Fultz made a name for himself with chase-down blocks in college, and the only way he could be a defensive weakness is if he really doesn’t try. Like, it would have to be 2014 James Harden levels of effort.

(By the way, if Fultz reaches his offensive ceiling, Harden is a good comparison.)

Boston also has another top draft selection coming next season (they own the Nets’ 2018 first-round pick outright), a couple of well-regarded overseas prospects, and they could also reach maximum free agent salary cap space this summer.

Thomas, on the other hand, is a free agent in 2018. He’s only making $6 million, which might be the best value in the league. You see where this is going. The Celtics, who aren’t talking like they’re interested in trading the No. 1 pick, draft Fultz in June. Then they ...

There are a hundred different options, and some do include Thomas in Boston for the long-term. If the Celtics don’t use that cap space this summer on a major free agent, they could re-sign Thomas to an extension this offseason. If they felt extremely bold, they could draft the top wing in the draft, Josh Jackson, over Fultz.

Even if they draft Fultz, there’s an argument that they’d work together just fine. SB Nation’s Celtics Blog made that case.

There’s going to be plenty of questions of whether Isaiah Thomas and Fultz can mesh, and usually when we’re talking about bringing a high upside lottery guard to a team with a solidified starter the answer is no. However, this isn’t the usual circumstances, Thomas isn’t a guard on the decline with a limited offensive repertoire with a young prospect being brought in who will only be a plus offensively if he’s at the one. Both Thomas and Fultz are electric guards that can score at all three levels and can absolutely put offenses on their backs. They are also capable players off-ball who know how to come off screens, and can be just as lethal to opposing teams. You’ll hear the legitimate questions about defense and get the occasional Lillard-McCollum comparisons, but one thing to keep in mind is Fultz has actually shown solid defensive potential and averaged 1.6 spg, and 1.2 bpg. He’s become one of the best guards in college basketball at the chase down block and when engaged can really sit in a stance and move his feet.

It helps that Thomas and Fultz already have a friendly relationship, both hailing from the University of Washington. Thomas reached out to Fultz after the lottery, and told him that he thinks they could thrive if he ends up in Boston.

“He asks questions; I answer them,” Thomas told reporters. “He’s a good friend of mine. If it happens, we’ll figure out how to play together. If not, we’ll go from there.”

The Celtics don’t have to decide now. Team president Danny Ainge has said that Thomas can play with anyone and they could take Fultz’s rookie year to gauge how the two players work together. Maybe Boston will decide the two players can work as a monstrous matchup-dependent duo, playing them together or separate totally based on the team they face.

But if Fultz is as good as we think he is, then Thomas will always be a player who limits how high he can reach.

The Cavaliers are an especially hard matchup for Thomas, who is stuck guarding Kyrie Irving or acting as a tiny roadblock for LeBron James’ drives. Cleveland is built with shooters that aren’t phased by a Thomas closeout. After blistering shot-making in the first half of Game 3, the Cavaliers only managed to score at a 93.6 offensive rating against Boston’s defense.

We also saw a perkier Boston offense with rapid, generous ball movement that resulted in 332 passes after averaging just 304 in the first two games, per NBA.com’s player tracking data. We’ve known all season that Cleveland’s defense isn’t great, even if they’re much better this postseason now that they’re trying. But a little bit of that regular season defensive team showed back up in the second half, allowing plenty of open shots (see: J.R. Smith on the final play) that Boston happily knocked down.

Saying goodbye to Thomas would be hard. At times this season, like the 53-point game, it felt like Thomas should be in Boston forever. But you also must consider that he’s 28 and small point guards sometimes precariously fall off. The Celtics might just have to wait out LeBron James, so youth is an asset. Thomas has done everything possible to make him a part of Boston’s future. It just might not be enough.

Thomas is an incredible player and an even more incredible story. He’s a Boston sports legend now. But if the Celtics have the highest aspirations about their future, then the best-case scenario might be one without Thomas, despite everything he has done.