The NBA’s Western Conference remains an enormous mess. While Paul Flannery is absolutely correct that the Golden State Warriors are well positioned to go on a run that will separate them from the pack, there’s little evidence any other teams will join them in breaking out. Just six games separate the No. 1 Warriors and the No. 14 Rockets in the standings. The No. 9 Kings are a half-game out of the playoffs but just four games out of No. 1. It’s a total mess.
Ranking the teams most likely to get destroyed by the Warriors in the Western Conference Finals
The NBA’s West standings are a jumble. Let’s look at who has the best chance at getting crushed in the conference finals.
Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports
But we all know and understand that the Warriors will be back in the NBA Finals, because no contender has shown evidence that suggests it can knock them off. Golden State has gone 48-13 in the Western Conference playoffs over the last four years. Just twice in those 12 series (the Thunder in 2016 and Rockets in 2018) has a West team legitimately challenged the Warriors. Golden State, of course, took the 2016 Thunder’s best player and have watched Houston lose as many games by now as they had through early March last season.
One of the rising clubs could potentially give the Warriors a spook if internal drama and injury continue to plague Golden State. But probably not. So consider this ranking not an order of which teams have the best chance to knock off the Warriors, but of the top contenders to get the honor of being destroyed by Golden State in the Western Conference Finals.
(One note: in compiling teams’ records against West playoff-ish teams, we’re including everyone in the Western Conference except the Suns.)
Record against Golden State: 1-0
Record against West playoff-ish teams: 9-4
What makes them legitimate: Denver has the No. 5 net rating in the NBA (No. 2 in the West), the league’s No. 9 offense and No. 4 defense. As you can see from their record against the West, the Nuggets have pretty consistently done well against the teams they are fighting against for a playoff spot and playoff seed. This team also has a high probability of adopting a legitimate chip on its shoulder due to not getting an All-Star (Nikola Jokic deserves it but the West has so many stars) and not having been to the playoffs in a while.
What makes them beatable: Last year the Nuggets showed a knack for losing heartbreaker games, which is pretty nebulous but does speak perhaps to lack of high-pressure NBA experience outside of Paul Millsap. Isaiah Thomas should enter service at some point. Are we 100% positive that’s a good thing for Denver?
2. Oklahoma City Thunder
Record against Golden State: 1-1
Record against West playoff-ish teams: 4-6
What makes them legitimate: OKC has the top net rating in the West (+6.5 points per 100 possessions). They have the top defense in the league, too — this was supposed to be a problem without Andre Roberson, but the Thunder have Paul George and Steven Adams, everything’s going to be okay. We also know that Russell Westbrook has no fear playing against anyone, let alone the Warriors.
What makes them beatable: We can’t unsee what we saw during the playoffs last year. It wasn’t all Carmelo Anthony.
3. L.A. Lakers
Record against Golden State: 0-0
Record against West playoff-ish teams: 10-7
What makes them legitimate: The Lakers are pretty good pretty early in LeBron’s debut season, which is a minor surprise. Between injuries and suspensions, Luke Walton’s had to cycle through a number of lineups, and he’s found some stuff that works. Plus, L.A. has options to upgrade (as witnessed in the current Trevor Ariza rumors). Oh, also, they have Playoff LeBron.
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What makes them beatable: The offense is pretty stuck, and there’s a whiff of illegitimacy in the defense — would anyone be surprised if went from its current top-10 to bottom half by the end of the season? There’s not a whole lot of production or reliability outside of LeBron.
4. L.A. Clippers
Record against Golden State: 1-0
Record against West playoff-ish teams: 10-6
What makes them legitimate: The Clippers have a top 10 net rating on the strength of a solid offense getting buckets galore out of Tobias Harris, Danilo Gallinari, and Lou Williams. No one in the league has an answer for Montrezl Harrell yet. They grind you, and Doc Rivers is one of the NBA’s best coaches.
What makes them beatable: If you can keep Lou and Danilo off the free throw stripe, you can (in theory) keep the Clippers’ offense in check. You could see a good defense like OKC, Memphis, or Utah game-planning around that in the playoffs. It’s a match-up league, blah blah, cliché cliché.
Record against Golden State: 0-1
Record against West playoff-ish teams: 9-5
What makes them legitimate: That 9-5 record against other playoff contenders is pretty alluring, as is Memphis’ No. 5 defense. Mike Conley finally seems destined to land that All-Star nod and Jaren Jackson Jr. is a first-team All-Rookie type prospect.
What makes them beatable: The offense is No. 27 in the NBA. For all the praise of Conley and Marc Gasol, they have little offensive help and aren’t really getting the job done above the bare minimum. If the defense slips in any way, this team is doomed. (On the other side, if they squeeze improvements out of the offense, they could be even better.)
6. Utah Jazz
Record against Golden State: 0-1
Record against West playoff-ish teams: 9-9
What makes them legitimate: The defense still isn’t what we expected, but it’s getting stronger and we know the bones are there. The offense is still suffering, but with the trade for Kyle Korver at least we know the Jazz are concerned and willing to do something about it.
What makes them beatable: Rudy Gobert isn’t playing at a Defensive Player of the Year level, Donovan Mitchell isn’t surprising anyone, Ricky Rubio’s not at his best, and the Jazz keep losing games they should probably win if they intend to make it to the Western Conference Finals.
7. Houston Rockets
Record against Golden State: 1-0
Record against West playoff-ish teams: 5-11
What makes them legitimate: No. 1 offense in the league over the last month. James Harden. Chris Paul. Sixty-five wins last season.
What makes them beatable: That defense! Who knew that losing two elite wing defenders would hurt so bad? Houston is No. 27 over the last month. And they keep losing to West rivals. Yikes, dudes.
Record against Golden State: 0-1
Record against West playoff-ish teams: 7-8
What makes them legitimate: Damian Lillard is better than ever, and the offense is humming (No. 8 in the NBA). Having one of the best point guards in the NBA is a huge advantage most nights and in most playoff series.
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What makes them beatable: You don’t want to hear about Portland’s past playoff struggles, do you? But here’s the thing: that 7-8 record against West playoff-ish teams indicates that the Blazers fatten up on wins over bad teams but aren’t actually as good as the other contenders. It turns out that in the playoffs, you only play against good teams.
Record against Golden State: 1-0
Record against West playoff-ish teams: 8-7
What makes them legitimate: The Mavericks don’t have a lot of weaknesses: the offense is decent, the defense is decent, the depth is good. Luka Doncic is answering the call for a shot maker most nights. Rick Carlisle can scheme a game, in case you’d forgotten.
What makes them beatable: Luka is going to be an NBA MVP some day (mark my words, this shouldn’t be controversial, but mark my words) but at some point this season defenses will find smarter ways to control his damage. Will he get tired having experienced marathon seasons in Europe? Maybe not. But he’s a surprise to every defense right now, and won’t be by the playoffs.
Record against Golden State: 1-0
Record against West playoff-ish teams: 10-9
What makes them legitimate: Gregg Popovich. Also, don’t look now, but the Spurs have the No. 10 offense in the NBA on a diet of DeMar DeRozan, LaMarcus Aldridge and Rudy Gay. The midrange jumpers aren’t the problem.
What makes them beatable: The defense is the problem. We’ve never seen a Popovich defense this bad (No. 29 in the league!) and almost 30 games into the season it’s a huge concern. Where’s the answer? Come back to us, Danny Green and Dejounte Murray!
Record against West Golden State: 0-1
Record against playoff-ish teams: 6-9
What makes them legitimate: Anthony Davis is a god. Julius Randle is pretty good. The offense is incredible (No. 4 in the NBA).
What makes them beatable: What happened to this defense? Jrue Holiday isn’t in the Defensive Player of the Year conversation this year, and New Orleans is struggling to hold opponents under 120 too often. The record against West opponents is worrisome. There is some potential for a disrupting trade to bring in more talent, however.
Record against Golden State: 0-1
Record against West playoff-ish teams: 6-10
What makes them legitimate: The Wolves have one of the best big men in the game in Karl-Anthony Towns, and that counts for a lot. The defense has improved substantially since Robert Covington replaced Jimmy Butler and Minnesota has the No. 3 net rating in the NBA over the last 10 games.
What makes them beatable: The offense is pretty stuck, Towns still isn’t getting enough shots, and Minnesota barely made the playoffs with Butler last season. It’s going to be a tough pull unless Andrew Wiggins figures it out or Towns goes MVP mode.
13. Sacramento Kings
Record against Golden State: 0-1
Record against West playoff-ish teams: 6-9
What makes them legitimate: The Kings have a knack for winning close games, a knack not seen in Sacramento for like ever. De’Aaron Fox is crazy good, and Dave Joerger consistently gets the best out of his rosters.
What makes them beatable: Despite the above-.500 record, the Kings have the second-lowest net rating out of the playoff-ish teams (a slice of a sliver above the Rockets) and the least amount of evidence that they can keep it up for 82 games. Mark this as a noble, inspiring run at the No. 12 pick in the NBA Draft.
