What happens if Kawhi Leonard sits out the season for the Raptors?

Kawhi Leonard was traded to the Toronto Raptors after a long-standing, ugly, and confusing dispute with the San Antonio Spurs. This came despite the widely reported stance that Leonard only wants to play for a Los Angeles franchise.

Could Kawhi actually hold out the entire season and never touch the floor as a Raptor? Can he fake an injury? Or exaggerate his current one?

If the Spurs-Kawhi breakup looked bad from the outside, a potential Raptors-Kawhi divorce could be uglier should the absolute worst occur, even if Leonard will in all likelihood play games for the Raptors this year.

Three doomsday things could happen for Toronto:

Let’s review how this could play out, and all of the reasons why Raptors fans should expect Leonard to play for their team this year.

Shortly after the trade went public, ESPN’s Chris Haynes reported that Leonard had “no desire” to play in Toronto. In a press conference on Friday, Raptors GM Masai Ujiri said somewhat of the opposite, stating he “didn’t get any sense of negativity” from Leonard. Since, we’ve seen Leonard pose for a picture, smiling with the Raptors President of Basketball Ops Masai Ujiri and GM Bobby Webster.

So as a whole, we know very little about his current intentions with the team. He’s yet to speak with media, and considering how quiet he’s been in years past, we might continue to learn about Leonard’s situation through third parties. We also now know that he won’t be making an appearance at Team USA’s mini-camp, held by head coach Gregg Popovich — awkward.

If Leonard openly refuses to play for Toronto, he’d make little, if any of his $20 million contract.

According to the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement, players’ base salaries can be reduced by 1/145 for up to 19 missed games — that includes exhibition, regular season and playoff games — and 1/110 of his base salary for the 20th missed game and beyond.

Spotrac has on record that Leonard is owed $20.2 million next season from the Raptors — which doesn’t include the $3 million trade kicker he earned just for getting traded to Toronto.

The Raptors played five preseason games last year. Let’s say they repeat that, play an 82-game season, and lose in six games in the first round of the playoffs. That’s a conservative estimate of 93 games they’ll play this year.

If Leonard sits all that time, he could lose more than $16 million of his contract just on missed games alone.

And the fines would keep rolling. The team could also penalize him for:

Practice: $2,500 for the first, $5,000 for the second, $7,500 for the third. For the fourth and beyond, “such discipline as is reasonable under the circumstances.”

Promotional Appearances: $20,000 for each required appearance without reasonable excuse.

Between those fines and the missed game fines, Leonard could lose his entire contract’s worth of money.

Even after all that, the Raptors would still have control over Kawhi Leonard’s future if he held out, meaning Leonard could be losing a whole lot more than just this year’s payday for sidelining himself.

According to Article XI, section 3 of the CBA, if Leonard withholds his services for more than 30 days, he will be deemed to not have completed his contract. He also won’t gain a year of service in the league, which directly affects when he can receive the highest maximum salary the league allows (a player needs 10+ years of experience).

Also, the Raptors get control over what happens to Leonard next summer, and he wouldn’t be able to sign elsewhere without Toronto’s approval. Leonard would be stuck with the Raptors all over again.

There is a scenario where this could pay off for Leonard. If the Raptors can’t convince him to play productive basketball for their team, there is a way they could try and gain a silver lining.

There is a disabled player exception put in place for teams who lose players to season-ending injuries. If a player gets hurt before Jan. 15 and it’s not reasonable to expect them back by June 15, according to an NBA physician, teams receive an exception to sign another player. The new player can be signed for the lesser of 50 percent of the injured player’s salary the year he’s hurt or an amount equal to the non-taxpayer mid-level salary exception ($8.641 million in 2018-19). The latter is what Toronto would receive for Leonard.

If the Raptors still want to try and get Leonard on the court, they can challenge the NBA physician’s opinion. This would call for a neutral physician, whose opinion would be final, to come in to play. But at that point, would it even be worth it for Toronto? This fight could turn disastrous and waste a competitive season. It’s an improbable move for the team to make.

So while the Raptors receive compensation money for another player, Leonard would sit the entire year, collect his near-$21 million payout, then book it to wherever he pleases in free agency.

There’s little chance either of these scenarios play out. There’s too much money, too much scrutiny, and too much slop involved for either side to let things escalate this far. Leonard would risk a lot not only with his financial future, but with his public one. It’s a stain he’d never be able to wipe away, and Leonard’s in the prime of his career.

Also there appears to be optimism on both sides. According to Bruce Arthur of the Toronto Star:

The Raptors have had initial conversations with Leonard and his camp, and according to sources they were positive. There was no indication of a holdout or even an unwillingness to play in Toronto. So far, it seems like Leonard may have an open mind.

Raptors fans should expect to see Leonard on the court this season, although a year ago we’d never have guessed we’d be in this position with Kawhi freakin’ Leonard.