These 6 NBA teams will hit the under on their projected win total

Everyone in the NBA is undefeated in the preseason, but that glorious early fall optimism has a way fading quickly. With only a few weeks until the games start to count for real, the SB Nation staff examined some over/under betting lines on win totals and picked the teams we think will disappoint.

The lines are from Draft Kings and all come with their own odds. These the teams we like to hit the under this season.

There are so many potential pitfalls for the Lakers. On the brink of season No. 17, LeBron James no longer seems indestructible after being limited to 55 games because of a groin injury last year. LeBron has famously coasted through the regular season (especially on the defensive end) for the last few years, but he doesn’t have that luxury this season even if he remains fully healthy. Who else is going to initiate this offense? Rajon Rondo? Quinn Cook? Alex Caruso? Would any of these guys even be in an NBA rotation if they weren’t with the Lakers?

Yes, Anthony Davis is great, but 65 percent of his field goals were assisted last year, a number that’s more than 10 percentage points higher than even Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokic. For all of Davis’ talent, it’s hard to imagine him carrying the offense by himself if and when LeBron isn’t on the court. The defense will likely be a real problem even if they’re at full strength. Then there’s the issue of lineup optimization: Davis doesn’t love playing center full-time despite that being his best use when the games really count. Davis is already talking about the Lakers using “super big” lineups with Dwight Howard and JaVale McGee on the court together. That’s a hard pass.

I’m buying the idea of the Lakers being able to beat anyone in the playoffs if they’re healthy. The LeBron-AD two-man game is that intriguing. I just don’t see them winning 52 games or more before they get there.

— Ricky O’Donnell

Giannis Antetokounmpo was everything last season, but as a one superstar team, the Bucks were still a team only as good as the sum of their parts. So what happens when one piece of the machine is stripped away?

Malcolm Brogdon’s signing with the Indiana Pacers was one of the most overlooked moves of the 2019 offseason. Brogdon’s a really good on-ball defender and an elite shooter. Both things are crucial to what makes Milwaukee’s system work. He connected on 51 percent of his shots from the field and 43 percent of his four three-point looks and 93 percent of his free throw attempts. Brogdon’s minutes are super productive, and they’re going to be replaced by less stable replacements. Will this be Wes Matthews’ bounce back season? Does Pat Connaughton take a leap? Donte DiVincenzo maybe?

There’s a missing piece in Milwaukee’s floor-spacing offense, and no obvious replacement.

— Matt Ellentuck

There are several reasons why 48 wins is a reach for the Indiana Pacers this season, but none touch the unknown surrounding Victor Oladipo. Here’s what Pacers head coach Nate McMillan said about his star guard last week: “I don’t anticipate Victor being available for a while, and I don’t know what a while is. There’s no timetable. “I haven’t had any information given to me that he will be practicing live anytime soon.”

Now, a Pacers optimist can counter by looking at Indiana’s “strong” finish after Oladipo’s injury. Yes, they avoided total collapse and made the playoffs. But after January 26th, they also had the league’s 24th offense and a defense that relied on an ability to force turnovers. Indiana also lost five of their top-seven scorers—including Bojan Bogdanovic, who averaged 20.7 points per game after Oladipo went down—and five of their six minutes leaders. Who is replacing Thad Young?

Malcolm Brogdon was really good in the role he had in Milwaukee, but asking him to generate shots on a team that doesn’t have Giannis Antetokounmpo or Khris Middleton eating all the defense’s attention will be quite an adjustment. T.J. Warren is a nice player, and we’ll see how he responds to competitive basketball for the first time in his NBA career. But the Pacers have too many questions and concerns to knock on the door of a 50-win season until they have at least one healthy All-Star making a nightly contribution. Onward to 2021.

—Michael Pina

This is your resident Indiana Pacers fan, doubling down on the Pacers hitting the under. There is no optimistic way to spin this but Pacers are going to spend a large chunk of their season without their star in Victor Oladipo. And that team without Oladipo, probably won’t be in the hunt to win 50 games. This feels like free money.

Oladipo ruptured the quad tendon in his knee and at one time had an expected return of January, but the Pacers continue to preach there is no timetable for his comeback. The Pacers also have no reason to rush their star back onto the court this season.

No matter how lovable Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner and Malcolm Brogdon may be, they are sadly not a 48-win team. They will be fine and and sometimes fun. Just not ya know ... as good as they’d be with Oladipo on the floor.

— Whitney Medworth

This summer featured Ted Leonsis reportedly calling every high-profile general manager candidate he could think of and begging them to take a job as the highest paid GM in the NBA, with none of them even accepting the interview. Tommy Sheppard seems like an extremely qualified and well-respected dude, but the Zards needing to resort to roughly their 5th choice tells you all you need to know about the state of their roster. Several smart people took one glance at the situation and quickly determined it was a loser for them.

Thankfully for fans, the Zards do have their own pick, so SuperTanking could prove extremely fruitful. So could trading Bradley Beal, who rules, but is almost certainly worth less to the Wizards than the assets he could fetch from a contender.

A healthy John Wall, a handful of new young players and a couple of lottery picks could make the Wizards extremely entertaining in 2020-21. I’m looking forward to the Anthony Edwards era in Chinatown. But betting on 27 wins or fewer this season feels like free money.

— Kim McCauley

Much has been made of the Knicks’ disastrous summer from a macro perspective. They embarrassingly struck out on the superstars they promised to bring in, watched their crosstown rivals swoop in to snag them, and released what amounted to a public apology less than 24 hours into free agency. All this after trading their best young player at the deadline on the theory that having additional cap space to build a superteam was preferable.

In response, the Knicks proudly refused to hand out long-term maximum deals to second-tier stars, which is understandable. The problem is they didn’t build a coherent basketball team in doing so.

The Knicks have more useful NBA players, but none of them fit together. It’s hard to see how Julius Randle helps elevate Mitchell Robinson, or how a bunch of 4.5s up front combined with non-shooting point guards helps space the floor for R.J. Barrett’s inevitable growing pains with the ball in his hands. Does Marcus Morris really help Kevin Knox, or will he simply block his playing time? Where is the infrastructure that’d allow Dennis Smith Jr. to play with the ball in his hands consistently? Is it even possible for David Fizdale to build a functioning five-man unit that has everything he needs without pissing off someone who believes they should be playing?

NBA teams need a pecking order and a coherent style of play to win games in the regular season. The Knicks’ full roster may be better than last year’s 17-win unit, but there’s no way all the parts can add up to a sum of 11 wins more than last season.

— Mike Prada

They traded for a new core that even Anthony Davis couldn’t drag to competency last year — and all due respect to Zion, but at age 19, AD he is not.

Additions like Derrick Favors, J.J. Redick, and Jaxson Hayes are nice, but not enough to move the needle in the savage West such that they’ll flirt with .500; David Griffin may have them well-positioned for a future when Zion develops, he potentially trades his point guard who can’t hit a J, and all those picks from the Lakers start to become real, tangible, actual hoopsters. But 2019-20 will feature a fair amount more losing than winning.

— Alex Rubenstein