Devonte’ Graham is the Hornets’ surprise Kemba Walker replacement

The Charlotte Hornets were supposed to be the worst team in the NBA this season. Vegas gave them the lowest over/under win total in the league at 23.5. ESPN put them dead last in their preseason power rankings. After choosing not to offer Kemba Walker a max contract and losing him for nothing to the Celtics, it sure seemed like a shot at the No. 1 overall pick in the 2020 NBA Draft was the only thing Charlotte had to look forward to.

Instead, the Hornets are off to a 6-7 start and would be the No. 8 seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs if the season ended today. None of this would be possible without the astonishing rise of second-year point guard Devonte’ Graham.

After Malik Monk hit a buzzer-beater to stun the Pistons on Friday, Graham followed it up with a ridiculous game-winner of his own against the Knicks the next night in Madison Square Garden. He’s been coming through for the Hornets in big moments all year.

Graham was a second-round pick in the 2018 draft who spent most of his first year as a pro going between the G League and the NBA. He appeared in 46 games for the big league club last season, averaging 4.7 points and 2.6 assists per game. The Hornets were hopeful Graham could be part of its future — they did trade two second-round picks to move up to draft him at No. 34 overall — but there’s no way they saw this coming. After giving Terry Rozier $58 million over the summer, it’s Graham who has been Charlotte’s best player and de facto Walker replacement.

Graham had been coming off the bench for the Hornets until Dwayne Bacon’s injury, but he should be in the conversation for Most Improved Player and Sixth Man if he keeps this up. Graham’s NBA success might feel like it has come out of nowhere, but it’s also worth noting he was one of the better college guards of this decade at Kansas. This is how Graham is putting together his breakout season.

Graham is leading the Hornets in scoring this season at 18.8 points per game despite coming off the bench until last week. The biggest improvement in his game has been his increased three-point shooting proficiency: Graham is knocking down 41.4 percent of his threes on 8.5 attempts per game. At the moment, 59 percent of Graham’s field-goal attempts are three-point shots.

Graham’s ability to hit pull-up threes off the dribble makes him an especially tough cover. It should remind Hornets fans quite a bit of how Walker used to play in Charlotte.

The pull-up three off the dribble is one of the toughest and most valuable shots in basketball. Graham has been remarkably good at making them so far, hitting 40 percent of the 5.3 pull-up threes he’s attempting per game. Meanwhile, Walker is taking 6.6 pull-up threes per game in Boston this year and hitting them at 41 percent clip.

Graham’s numbers aren’t quite as sparkling at Walker’s were, but they aren’t far off. Here’s a look at how Graham’s stats this season stack up to Walker’s last year, per 100 possessions:

Graham’s skill as a facilitator is also a huge factor in his breakout. He’s currently posting a 35.1 percent assist rate, which is several points higher than Walker’s best season early in his career. Graham is currently one of 14 players in the league averaging at least seven assists per night.

Rozier was supposed to be the Hornets’ new star point guard when Walker left, but Graham has taken the role and moved Rozier to shooting guard in the biggest moments. The two are working well when paired together in the backcourt: Charlotte has a +1.4 net rating when Rozier and Graham are on the court together, the fifth highest among lineup that have played at least 100 minutes.

The first time I wrote about Graham at SB Nation was back in 2014. At that point, Graham was doing a post-grad year out of high school and trying to get out of his commitment to Appalachian State.

Graham would eventually get his release and go on to have a wonderful college career at Kansas. A three-year starter, he was Big 12 tournament MVP as a sophomore, an all-conference guard as a junior, and Big 12 Player of the Year and a first-team All-American as a senior.

Graham was battled-tested in big games playing under the national spotlight for one of the most prestigious programs in the country. He was one of college basketball’s very best players when he entered the draft, but slipped to the second round because scouts thought there wasn’t much special about his game. He wasn’t that big or that fast or that good at shooting or that explosive going to the basket.

He’s turning out to be one of the better players from his draft class at the start of his second season. For NBA teams, the lesson here is never to discount a really good player just because he’s older and has unremarkable tools. For players, the lesson is never stop improving your game. You never know when the right opportunity is going to hit. Graham is living proof of that.