The odds favor the Warriors over the Raptors. Should they?

The Raptors won both regular-season matchups against the Warriors. They won more games (well, game, singular) in the regular season. One of their star players has not been ruled out of Game 1 of the NBA Finals, unlike Golden State’s Kevin Durant. 538 has the Raptors at 55 percent odds of winning the series.

Should the Warriors really be favored to win the championship?

Yes, probably: they have won the previous two and three of the last four, and most of Toronto’s roster doesn’t have this level of experience, other than 2014 Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green.

Still, it’s interesting how many factors lean toward Toronto yet Golden State remains rather heavily favored overall. You wonder how much is the Durant ex machine and how much is the Warriors’ seeming inevitability. One hint: the Raptors are now slight favorites in Game 1, which Durant has been ruled out of. The line moved from slight Warriors lean to slight Raptors lean since Saturday night.

Based on where the line is now, the Warriors would be slight favorites without Durant at home. If this plays out all the way, Toronto having home court advantage means they might actually be favored if we all knew Durant weren’t coming back (which seems like a real possibility).

I’m just asking questions, folks. Asking questions and definitely not calling a friend in Las Vegas throw some down on an informed hunch. Definitely probably not.

Nothing to report.

Game 1 is Thursday, Game 2 follows on Sunday and Game 3 will be on the following Wednesday. Plan accordingly.

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Be excellent to each other.