These 8 NBA teams will hit the over on their projected win total

Name a more iconic duo than reckless sports predictions and gambling. With the NBA season around the corner, the SB Nation staff thought we would combine the two and hand out some free advice on the most intriguing over/under win totals at the sportsbook.

The lines are from Draft Kings and all come with their own odds. These the teams we like to hit the over this season.

The Nets won 42 games last year and to achieve the over in this scenario, we only need three more wins for the same team. That same team has swapped Kyrie Irving for D’Angelo Russell and by my calculations, this is a safe bet to add a small amount of wins to your season. Let’s also take into account that Caris Levert will be back and healthy, Joe Harris is on a contract year, and let’s not forget Spencer Dinwiddie.

Will there be chemistry issues to start the season? Possibly.
Will Kyrie go full galaxy brain? Probably.
Will the team be surrounded by weird Kevin Durant rumors? Definitely.

But, I’m not making the case that the Nets will be the greatest team ever, I just need them to win more than 44.5 games, and this feels like an easy win to me.

— Whitney Medworth

Things don’t look entirely promising for the Warriors. Kevin Durant was a big loss, but they’ve existed as a dominant team without him before, but also losing Klay Thompson to injury at the end of last season dramatically changed the outlook of their future. Thompson is the perfect complimentary superstar, capable of playing like the main superstar when necessary, but also comfortable playing the sidekick or even the third in line, as long as it benefits the team. And he does this with his offensive game as well as his defensive capabilities.

But I believe. I believe in Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, and Steve Kerr. I believe in Kerr being able to be creative with lineups to get the best of his remaining stars. I believe in Green being able to play both sides of the ball in his best form, which he usually saves for the playoffs, but which will be necessary in the regular season now. And I believe, as everyone should, in the upcoming year of Curry in which he will burn the league down and showcase the full extents of his powers, as both a requirement for the team to do well, and to prove a point to the doubters.

Saying that they will beat 47 games is a hopeful prediction. The West is even tougher now, and the league has grown in parity. But I still think that with Curry and Green at their best, the Warriors are still capable of 50 wins.

— Zito Madu

The Bulls have the most dispiriting goal in the NBA laid before them this season: to scratch-and-claw their way to the No. 8 seed in the Eastern Conference. While the franchise won’t get another Grant Park parade for such an accomplishment, it would signal meaningful improvement after two truly horrendous seasons following the Jimmy Butler trade. Whether the Bulls can outlast the Detroit Pistons and Orlando Magic for that final spot in the East remains to be seen, but they should at least be close enough to clear 30 wins.

The Bulls have already broken a pair of dubious trends with nearly two decades of history behind them in this calendar year. First, actually traded for a player who improved the team in Otto Porter Jr. Then they made two three smart free agent signings with Tomas Santoransky, Thaddeus Young, and Luke Kornet. None of them are superstars, but all of them should help Zach LaVine, Lauri Markkanen, and Wendell Carter Jr. grow into the best versions of themselves. The Bulls still have a long, long way to go, but they have no excuse to continue being one of the very worst teams in the league.

— Ricky O’Donnell

The Pistons are not very good, but they have two things going for them: they are in the Eastern Conference, and they have a real centerpiece star in Blake Griffin. The Pistons went 41-41 and landed the No. 8 seed last season, their first under Dwane Casey and first full season with Griffin. In fact, the Pistons have beat this 37.5 wins line in three of the past four seasons. In the other, they won 37 games. So 37.5 really doesn’t seem like much of a stretch: the Pistons don’t even need to improve to hit it, they just need to not be substantially worse.

Griffin, who has struggled with injuries throughout his illustrious career, played 75 games last season. That’s a good sign. Andre Drummond had his strongest effort ever at age 25 and is now in a contract year. Reggie Jackson, who has also struggled with injuries, played all 82, something that seems unlikely to repeat. But while the Pistons are shallow, the talent at the top is pretty good — Griffin is a top-five player in the East, and Drummond might be the second or third best center — and Casey is not a coach that presides over much failure. Pencil them in for a low seed and an average record.

— Tom Ziller

Much depends on Kristaps Porzingis, who we’ve not seen for 21 months and had a spotty history of injuries even before then. But if he’s healthy and in a good frame of mind, a one-two punch of Porzingis and Luka Doncic rivals any in the league. A Doncic-Porzingis pick-and-roll offers tantalizing possibilities, even when opponents switch.

The surrounding cast is underrated as well. Seth Curry had his best season under Rick Carlisle three years ago and will now be empowered in an ideal role as a secondary playmaker alongside Doncic. The combination of Dwight Powell’s rim-rolling, Maxi Kleber’s floor spacing, and Boban Marjanovic’s size will do the job nicely at center over the course of 82 games. Tim Hardaway Jr. provides instant offense, while Delon Wright is a quality defender and underrated playmaker. Keep an eye on Jalen Brunson and Justin Jackson, two young players who slot into obvious roles at backup point guard and combo forward.

The West is difficult, but it’s hard for me to picture a Rick Carlisle-coached team going three straight years without a winning record, particularly with this much star potential.

—Mike Prada

Mike gave you all the real reasons to pick the over with Dallas, but I’ll go with the simplest reason of all: There is serious “best shape of his life” potential for Kristaps Porzingis, based on this one picture, which is surely enough on which to base a seasonal prediction.

—Eric Stephen

Kawhi Leonard’s singular brilliance in last year’s playoffs obscured one key stat from the Raptors’ title run: their 17-5 record in the 22 games Leonard rested for load management. Twelve of those 17 wins came before the midseason trade for Marc Gasol, and several of those 12 came amid the backdrop of Kyle Lowry also shuffling in and out of the lineup with nagging ailments. Leonard may have turned them into champions, but the leftover core is quite good in its own right.

Are you ready to see a fully unleashed Pascal Siakam for 82 games? I sure am, and I expect big things. Gasol is coming off a dominant summer for Spain, and Lowry is still Lowry. Danny Green is gone, but O.G. Anunoby should be much better this season after struggling with injury and personal tragedy last year.

The biggest risk here is Masai Ujiri deciding to accelerate a rebuild and trading Lowry and/or Gasol, both in the final year of their contract. But while Ujiri has built a reputation for not caring about sentiment to improve the team — see DeRozan, DeMar — his actions over the course of his tenure with the Raptors have been more conservative than that reputation suggests. I don’t expect him to be as quick to break up a pretty good thing as many others do.

— Mike Prada

The Knicks won 17 games last season. They were the worst team in the league. By April, Damyean Dotson, Mario Hezonja, and Luke Kornet were their guiding lights in games that were watched by nobody. I am not here to pronounce 2020 as a turning point for this franchise. The playoffs stay out of reach and zero All-Stars are on the roster. The Knicks are clearly rebuilding, but they also have so much more talent than they did a year ago. Some of it’s tantalizing. Some of it’s flawed yet proven. Some is years away from actualizing it in an NBA environment.

There are also real players, with real skills. Marcus Morris is frustrating, but not bad. Julius Randle averaged 25.2 points per 36 minutes with a 60.0 True Shooting percentage. Taj Gibson is a professional adult whose arms remain long. Sure, they all play the same position but this team also has a nice blend of athleticism, youth, and, most importantly, shooting in the backcourt. Reggie Bullock and Wayne Ellington make life easy for everybody else, and Kevin Knox is...no longer a rookie.

None of this is meant to resemble a ringing endorsement. All they need to do is win 30 games. In the Eastern Conference, with this talent base, that seems plausible enough.

— Michael Pina

I believe in Zion Williamson. I believe in future All-Stars Brandon Ingram and Lonzo Ball. I believe in veterans Jrue Holiday, J.J. Redick, Derrick Favors and E’Twaun Moore rising the 24-and-unders to the occasion. And I believe the Pels finish over .500.

All success revolves around Zion’s play and I’ve yet to be given a reason why he won’t dominate at the next level. Even if he struggles finding his way as a scorer, he’ll facilitate an offense that stretches Redick, Holiday and Moore around the arc, and plants Favors and Jaxson Hayes down low. New Orleans doesn’t have a clear identity to start the season, and that’s ok. But it has so much raw talent, a resolution will come.

— Matt Ellentuck