The race for the NBA’s 8th seeds looks truly awful

More than half of the teams in the NBA get into the playoffs every year. As such, it stands to reason that the last few teams that gain admission to the postseason are roughly average. Team quality is not necessarily linear — there are not universally 10 bad teams, 10 average teams, 10 good teams — so there may be cases where one or more of the teams that sneak into the playoffs aren’t so good to be considered average. They are just bad.

We know these teams well: the 30-52 Bulls from 1985-86, the 31-51 Spurs from 1987-88, the 37-45 Hawks from 2007-08. Truly bad teams that nonetheless made the playoffs. But these are usually one-offs: a conference will have six or seven good teams, the other conference will be 8-10 teams deep, a team below .500 will sneak into the playoffs and be dispatched quickly, we all move on.

This season, there’s a chance that both conferences could have a truly bad No. 8 seed.

As of right now, the East’s No. 8 seed (the Magic) are four games under .500 and the West’s No. 8 seed (the Spurs) are four games under .500, too. This isn’t a huge surprise in the East, which was billed as top-heavy and shallow coming in. That Orlando is that low in place of, perhaps, the Pacers or Raptors (given their injury issues) is a surprise. But the presence of a bad No. 8 seed is not shocking or rare in that conference.

The West was supposed to be brutal, though, with perhaps four teams punching each other in the throat for that No. 8 seed. Instead, truly bad teams with embarrassing losing streaks under their belts find themselves well within striking distance of a playoff spot. It’s up for grabs for everyone in the West except the Warriors, and even then, who knows?

Consider all of this:

This is not the rock fight we were promised.

The Blazers and Kings being bad deprived us of two teams we thought would be in the mix in the Western Conference playoff picture. The Thunder being surprisingly good filled one of those gaps, and the Mavericks have definitely exceeded expectations (a legit good team instead of a team fighting for No. 8). Some pegged the Pelicans, Suns, and Wolves are potentially frisky. That has not really borne out for more than brief moments in time.

In the East, we can blame the Magic and Pistons for falling terribly flat, and the Bulls and Hawks for failing to follow a linear path upward. (Don’t let us down, Lauri Markkanen!) The Hornets have been better than expected but still bad. The Wizards have been absolutely bizarre and entertaining but still bad. The Knicks and Cavaliers are exactly as atrocious as they ought to be.

There is hope this will get better. The Magic could put it all together, and maybe Blake Griffin and Reggie Jackson get healthy and the Pistons get interesting. The Blazers could find a way to survive their center/defense shortage, the Spurs could be revived (there are signs already), the Pelicans can thrive with a healthy Zion Williamson, the Wolves could capitalize on Good Andrew Wiggins, the Kings could secure a time machine and undo their offseason coaching change. Maybe these won’t be two embarrassing chases for the No. 8 seed after all.

It’s just not looking good right now.

Tom Ziller publishes Good Morning It’s Basketball, an independent basketball newsletter. You can subscribe here.