The Miami Heat proved ‘analytics’ and every expert wrong by making NBA Finals

I want you to just look at a photo.

For three minutes and 45 seconds, the Miami Heat’s season was on the brink. Down at home to the Chicago Bulls, the Heat were floundering on offense and looking for any way to get a shot to go down.

Fast forward a month and a half, and the Miami Heat are headed to their second NBA Finals in the four years since acquiring Jimmy Butler in a 103-84 dispatching of the Boston Celtics in Boston in Game 7. It was less of a blowout and more catharsis, a release of the pent up anger and regret from last year, when the Celtics defeated the Heat on their home floor to head to the Finals. This year, the Heat got their vengeance, stacking another chip onto one of the more improbable runs to an NBA title that we’ve ever seen.

No one expected the Heat to make it this far. There wasn’t one prominent expert that picked Miami to go to the NBA Finals at the start of the playoffs, and “analytics” like ESPN’s model didn’t even give them a real chance to win the Eastern Conference Finals.

But the question that everyone is asking is how? How did this Miami Heat team that looked noticeably worse than the one that missed the Finals last year come back to the doorstep of NBA immortality? Well, they did it in a way that very few other teams can.

Offensively, the Heat were a mess for most of the season. They were dead last-yes, DEAD LAST in points per game. A large part of that was a fall off in three point shooting from last year to this year. In 2022, the Heat shot almost 38% from deep. This year in the regular season, they shot 34.4%, a drastic step down from where they were at. The defense remained good—if there’s one thing that the Heat will always do, it’s play defense. The Heat were second in opponent points per game allowed this year, and the defense will always travel.

What’s happened to the offense this postseason is a combination of a few things. First off, the shooters have regained their form. The Heat are shooting 39% from deep on 33 attempts, and this has been without guard Tyler Herro, who could be coming back for the NBA Finals. This offensive explosion for the Heat is a very welcome sign, because again: they were BAD on offense for a large part of the season, and for them to have any chance at winning in the Finals, they’ll need the hot shooting to continue.

The second reason why the Heat have come back to this point is simple: Heat Culture. Yes, I know that it seems like Heat Culture is just a buzzword for working players extremely hard, but this culture is extremely real. It’s not just the grittiness they play with. It’s the faith they put in every player to play at a high level, regardless of their status or pedigree in the NBA. They know who works for their system, and they run that system to a T. Take wing Caleb Martin, for example. Martin was waived by the Hornets and signed by the Heat after rapper J Cole mentioned him to Caron Butler. Now, Martin is headed to his first Finals after averaging 19 points in the ECF, and putting up 26 in the final game. Duncan Robinson was sliding further and further down the rotation, but in the playoffs he’s provided crucial shooting and spacing for a team that needs it without Herro. Heat Culture is very real, and it’s helped the Heat get this far.

However, the Heat don’t want to come this far just to say they’ve come this far. They’re in to win the whole thing, and even if analytics gives them a small chance of winning the series, they’ll find a way.

They always do.