Here is where college football gets really interesting. The college football polls are starting to look like BCS bowl projections, the BCS rankings have been announced for the first time, and BCS championship contenders realize that upsets now could ruin a season of hard work. Which teams need to be worried this week?
Shaking Up The College Football Rankings: Oregon, Auburn Try To Avoid Upsets
With the first BCS standings just released, college football’s heavyweights know better than ever what’s at stake. Oregon and Auburn lead the list of title contenders who should be on upset alert this week.
On paper, this is a colossal mismatch: the Ducks are tops in the nation in scoring offense, and third in rushing offense, which sets them up to gouge UCLA’s 92nd-ranked rush defense. But UCLA beat Texas in Austin earlier this year, and strange things always seem to happen in Thursday night games.
Addicted to Quack is also wondering about the pressures that Oregon will face as the nation’s top-ranked team. I say those pressures don’t outweigh the massive advantages in talent and creativity Oregon has over the Bruins.
Chances of Upset: Five percent. The pistol worked wonders against Texas, and Oregon’s defense has revealed itself as inconsistent at best. This team is in danger of getting popped in a shootout every week; only the gradations of danger change.
The best team Oklahoma has played so far is Florida State. The Sooners beat the Seminoles 47-17. The best team Missouri has played so far is ... well, Illinois, I guess? Mizzou topped the Illini 23-13 at a neutral site, but only after Ron Zook’s squad did the football equivalent of eating crayons for the fourth quarter.
There's a really good chance that Missouri's success to this point, especially in terms of their second-ranked scoring defense, has been a product of smoke, mirrors, and a woeful slate of opponents. Oklahoma, by contrast, has struggled in some close games, but their close games have come against Cincinnati and Air Force, not San Diego State. The Sooners have also gotten Heisman-caliber performance out of Landry Jones of late (30 of 34 last week), and the Tigers' Blaine Gabbert isn't quite there yet.
Chances of Upset: 20 percent. Oklahoma’s riding the rails against inferior competition earlier this year could presage an upset to an inferior team here. Alternatively, the Sooners could have learned their lesson and will dust Mizzou. Either way, this seems like a game Oklahoma will either win or cough up; Mizzou just doesn’t have quite enough to dictate its terms.
TCU has the nation’s top scoring defense, second-ranked total and passing defense, and ninth-ranked rushing defense. It’s just another iteration of the stellar units that Gary Patterson’s team seems to roll out every year.
But Air Force’s option attack can give that defense fits. The Falcons had the two best rushing performances against TCU’s defense in 2009 and 2008, and the Horned Frogs lost this matchup in 2007 and haven’t held Air Force under 100 yards rushing since 2006. There is a chance TCU could be heartbroken at the end of Saturday.
Chances of Upset: 25 percent. It isn’t a great chance, though, because this defense is much better than 2007’s edition, and might be better than last year’s.
There is a lot to love about this matchup: Cameron Newton and Gus Malzahn’s frenetic spread up against the stout LSU defense; LSU having to play a game in daylight that might sap some of Les Miles’ voodoo; the possibility that Verne Lundquist will forget which Tigers are which; and the chances that this game, and not one featuring Alabama, will decide the SEC West and, perhaps, the SEC’s champion.
But the most amusing thing will be the clash of LSU’s 113th-ranked passing offense and Auburn’s 108th-ranked passing defense. It’s one of the better “movable object vs. immobile force” tussles in recent memory, pitting two very good teams’ blindingly obvious Achilles heels against each other.
Chances of Upset: 40 percent. LSU's defense is far more talented than any Newton has seen so far, and the chances of Patrick Peterson making a game-changing play on special teams and/or Miles making a bone-headed-but-brilliant call are not to be ignored.
Northwestern is the Big Ten’s doormat no longer, but the Wildcats won’t be competing for any conference titles for a while. Instead, they’ll settle for the spoiler role. They’ve played it well of late: in 2009, Iowa’s undefeated season came to an end at Ryan Field, and 2008 saw a ranked Minnesota team fall to the ‘Cats.
Michigan State has been a little more consistent and potent than both of those upset victims, of course, putting up more than 25 points in every contest and allowing more than 20 just twice. But there is precedent for the unexpected to happen against Northwestern.
Chances of Upset: 10 percent. It would help the Wildcats’ chances greatly if they could muster a go-to threat in a rushing attack: Northwestern is one of just five schools in BCS automatic qualifier conferences without a 100-yard rusher this season.
Iowa’s the favorite in this game, which is shaping up as the year’s best battle of teams associated with tradition and the patent on the traditional style of Big Ten football.
That's a label much easier to affix to Wisconsin, which has rushed for 165 or more yards in every game this year, but has topped 250 yards passing just once. Iowa's a bit more pass-happy, though, and certainly has been better for it: Hawkeyes quarterback Ricky Stanzi has 200-plus yards in every game this year, and three or more touchdowns in three of them. He also leads the Big Ten in passer rating.
Chances of Upset: 25 percent. Wisconsin also got its Super Bowl out of the way last week against Ohio State; a letdown would be no big surprise.
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