The college football season is nearing an end, and Week 12 has an odd quirk: the top three teams in the BCS standings, Oregon, Auburn, and TCU, won’t play this weekend, virtually guaranteeing that the Week 13 BCS rankings will look just like this week’s. But can any other teams make moves? And will any other teams remove themselves from BCS contention with losses?
BCS Standings Shake-Up: Boise State’s Fine In Week 12, But Can LSU Avoid An Upset?
In a week without games involving the top three teams in the BCS standings, there’s still plenty at stake for BCS hopefuls Boise State and LSU.
No. 4 Boise State vs. Fresno State, Friday, 9:00 p.m.
Boise State welcomes the always game Bulldogs to the Smurf Turf in Idaho, which spells serious trouble for Pat Hill’s team. The Broncos average 46.3 points per game at home, and have beaten Fresno by 51, 24, and 17 in the last three games of this series in Boise.
If there’s any hope for the Bulldogs this week, it’s that Boise State’s defense has, oddly, been more vulnerable at home: the Broncos have allowed 16.3 points per game at home this year, compared to just five points per game in true road games and 10 points per game in their five tilts away from Boise.
Chances of Upset: 10 percent. That’s five percent for Fresno’s long track record of feisty play in big games and five percent for Pat Hill’s mustache.
No. 5 LSU vs. Mississippi, 3:30 p.m.
Banning the forward pass from this game would save us all from one of the biggest affronts to that invention in many, many years.
Last week, these two teams combined to complete 18 of 46 passes for no touchdowns and four interceptions. Jordan Jefferson’s passer rating is 96.82, which isn’t among the top 100 passers in the country. Jeremiah Masoli’s 123.18 is 78th. (Jarrett Lee’s 124.77 passer rating would be 74th in the country if he had enough attempts.)
Only six team average fewer passing yards per game than LSU: three are the service academies, four run variations on the triple option, and Purdue and UCLA have both started multiple quarterbacks this season due to injury. The Bayou Bengals don’t have those excuses.
Chances of Upset: 25 percent. LSU’s defense is, of course, the thing that makes LSU a favorite in this or any game. But you can’t win games 0-0.
No. 6 Stanford at California, 3:30 p.m.
The Cardinal still need a bit of help to get to a BCS bowl game, but should have no trouble getting up for their hated rival. Cal can take hope from last week’s results: their defensive success against Oregon last week and Stanford’s struggles to score on Arizona State make it seem like the Bears might have a chance to pull an upset here.
And Cal has been excellent at home, too.
Chances of Upset: 30 percent. The game likely hinges on Andrew Luck getting a couple of big plays in against the nation’s 14th-ranked pass defense.
No. 7 Wisconsin vs. Michigan, noon
Dreaming of a shootout between teams that put up 83 and 65 points in the last two weeks? You wouldn’t be the only one.
But Wisconsin’s defense (21st in the country with 315.6 yards allowed per game) is much, much better than the Illinois unit Michigan gutted. The Badgers could score a lot in this game, preserving their Big Ten Championship and Rose Bowl chances, but the Wolverines will need something Herculean from Denard Robinson to keep pace.
Chances of Upset: Five percent. Expecting Robinson to do that requires expecting Robinson to play every snap. I don’t.
No. 8 Nebraska at No. 19 Texas A&M, 8:00 p.m.
The 12th Man at Kyle Field should help flummox Taylor Martinez, who has been up and down this year. But on the road, he’s been great, accounting for 14 touchdowns against Washington, Kansas State, and Oklahoma State and averaging over 200 yards passing and over 160 yards rushing per game.
Ryan Tannehill, is almost certainly a better passer, though, completing nearly 70 percent of his passes since being elevated to starter in October.
Chances of Upset: 20 percent. Nebraska’s defense is the roughest he’ll face this year, but Tannehill has been very good so far.
No. 9 Ohio State at No. 20 Iowa, 3:30 p.m.
In a game pitting enigma against enigma, Terrelle Pryor gets to go to Iowa City and try to keep Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship conversation and on pace for a BCS at-large berth.
Pryor’s thrown interceptions in his last four games, but has completed 68 percent or more of his passes in six games this season, including two of the last four. Iowa’s defense has held teams under 14 points five time, but allowed Arizona and Wisconsin to top 30 and gave up a lead to Northwestern last week.
Chances of Upset: 25 percent. The raucous Iowa crowd should help the Hawkeyes, who have been reduced to playing spoiler at this point.
All rankings from BCS standings. All odds provided by OddsShark.
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