LSU-West Virginia: Fun With Targets And Catches

LSU’s visit to West Virginia has certainly been the most well-publicized game of the weekend, and probably for good reason: it features the most fascinating matchup of the weekend. There are plenty of big games on the docket -- Oklahoma State-Texas A&M, Arkansas-Alabama, etc. -- but it is really fun to think about Dana Holgorsen’s offense taking on probably the most vicious defense of the young season. Chris Brown wrote about it, Bruce Feldman went behind the scenes, etc.

So what can I add to the narrative? How about some targets-and-catches data? This data is still not as widespread as I need to make it (in that regard, stay tuned to Football Study Hall in the coming weeks), so let me share some interesting data.

LSU’s defense is just devastatingly fast. They don’t rush the passer incredibly well (their sack rates thus far rank among the nation’s midsection), and they don’t force a low completion rate (like recent Nebraska defenses have been known to do on occasion). What they have done thus far is almost take a page out of the TCU book: they swarm without conscience. Some targets data will show you how and why.

(The “N/A” in the tables below means there was no target data associated with the pass in the play-by-play. Usually, but not always, that means the pass was intercepted.)

It was the same story against Mississippi State. Passes to receivers did not result in many completions (just six in 12 attempts), while shorter passes to running backs and tight ends were completed (nine for 13), but LSU made immediate tackles.

So looking at these two games combined (and omitting Northwestern State for the time being), here’s what you get.

The checkdown passes and screens are actually a better option than passes to actual wide receivers.

So what does that mean for West Virginia? Well, first of all, they don’t actually list tight ends on the roster. They do, however, differentiate between “Wide Receivers” and “Inside Receivers.” Here are their season stats thus far:

(Note: table updated to reflect Stedman Bailey as a wideout, not as an inside receiver as reflected on WVU’s official site.)

In all, if West Virginia is going to move the ball, it is likely going to be with repeated 6-8 yarders to Austin, Devon Brown, etc. LSU’s safeties are just so good, and WVU has not distinguished itself with any wideout other than McCartney. (And yes, obviously the inside guys don’t ALWAYS just line up inside, but they usually do.) Plus, West Virginia’s running game has been, to put it kindly, lacking. Freshmen Vernard Roberts and Andrew Buie have combined to average just 3.2 yards per carry, and LSU’s line has forced decent offensive lines to implode upon themselves thus far. Smith will have almost no choice but to pass, pass, pass, and success will require extreme patience and strong decision-making.