NFL Week 3 spread picks, including a pair of underdogs

Two weeks of picks against the spread are in the books.

And we have two wins to show for it.

After going 1-2 on picks in Week 1, that was the result again in Week 2. But I had to wait until Monday night to get that win, and sweat out a Baker Mayfield-led comeback from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Maybe that was the spark we needed.

But hey, if you’ve faded my picks these past two weeks, you are 4-2, so perhaps there is still value in this exercise.

Let’s get to this week’s picks. As always, the lines are taken from FanDuel.

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars
FanDuel line: Jacksonville -2.5
Spread pick: Houston +2.5

Yes, the Houston Texans are 0-2 after a last-minute loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday Night Football. And yes, the Texans have some things to sort out on the offensive side of the football.

However, the Texans defense is a problem, as that unit pressured Baker Mayfield throughout the game on Monday night. Now they’ll get to see Trevor Lawrence, who has already thrown three interceptions and has an Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt of 5.19. That ranks him 24th in the league, behind C.J. Stroud.

The Texans get their first win on Sunday.

Kansas City Chiefs at New York Giants
FanDuel line: Kansas City -5.5
Spread pick: Kansas City -5.5

Yes, the Kansas City Chiefs are 0-2 in the young season, and people are wondering if it is time to panic.

However, I am a firm believer in the idea of context, and those two losses require a healthy dose of it. In Week 1, the Chiefs went to Brazil and lost to a division rival and playoff team from a season ago. Then, in Week 2, they welcomed the Philadelphia Eagles to town in a Super Bowl rematch.

Now they get to take on an 0-2 New York Giants team that showed some signs of life against the Dallas Cowboys, in an overtime loss.

The Chiefs have not impressed this season, but this is the proverbial “get right” game. They’ll do just that and start to ease some of the panic setting in around Kansas City.

Detroit Lions at Baltimore Ravens
FanDuel line: Baltimore -5.5
Spread pick: Detroit +5.5

This has “Game of the Week” potential, and I’m not just saying that because this matchup was my pre-season Super Bowl pick ...

The last time these two teams met, however, was anything but a classic. The Baltimore Ravens won in blowout fashion, 38-6, back in October of 2023.

I expect this game to be much closer. The Detroit Lions snapped back to life last week in a blowout of the Chicago Bears, and the offense -- and Jared Goff -- took a big step forward from Detroit’s Week 1 loss to the Green Bay Packers.

As for the Ravens, while their pass defense has been solid this year, their run defense has not been. Baltimore has given up an Expected Points Added per Rush of 0.043 this season, which is among the bottom ten teams in the league. That could create opportunities for Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery in the run game on Monday night.

Baltimore may very well win this game, but at a minimum, I believe the Lions keep this close.

Last week: 1-2-0
Season record: 2-4-0