Best DFS picks for Jaguars vs Chiefs in Week 5

Was that the old Chiefs we saw last Sunday against the Ravens? It sure looked like it, as Patrick Mahomes threw for 270 yards and four touchdowns. Of course, the Ravens defense is in shambles, but there’s no doubt the Chiefs offense has had to bite and claw to move the ball this season. Getting Xavier Worthy back was a huge help, and as long as he doesn’t aggravate his shoulder injury, he’s going to help open up the offense.

The Jaguars on the other hand have not broken out offensively like we hoped with new head coach Liam Coen, but they are 3-1 with the help of an improved defense. The hope was that Coen would help elevate Trevor Lawrence like he did Baker Mayfield, but Lawrence remains average, while RB Travis Etienne has been the breakout player on offense.

Jacksonville’s defense has allowed just 18 points per game and 5.1 yards per play, which ranks them fourth and 11th on the season. While the Chiefs have allowed just 19 points per game and 5.3 yards per play, ranking them seventh and 16th in the early going.

The Jaguars have been terrific against the pass, ranking third in EPA per drop and first in DVOA against the pass, while the Chiefs rank ninth in EPA and 16th in DVOA. Against the run, both teams are below average in EPA and DVOA, but the Chiefs are 31st in both, while Jacksonville is 19th and 20th.

Below we will take a look at the best DFS plays for this Sunday night showdown.

The Chiefs throw first, fast paced offense, along with Mahomes’ ability, always keeps him near the top of fantasy projections. Add in his rushing ability when needed, and his floor remains high even when they have trouble scoring points. The Jaguars defense has been good enough to worry about his ceiling, but the closer the game is, the more Mahomes will be pushed, which is always good for his fantasy production.

Etienne has played well this season, converting 65 rushing attempts for 394 yards (6.1 ypc) and 2 touchdowns, while catching 6-of-10 targets for 32 yards and another touchdown. So far, he’s been the only Jags player you’d want as a captain on a single slate. That’s not to say Brian Thomas Jr. and Trevor Lawrence can’t get things going, but they haven’t yet.

The Chiefs have also been better against the pass, so we can expect the Jags to at least try to get the run established early on, and if they do, this could end up being an Etienne game.

The Chiefs highest ceiling skill position player is Worthy and it’s not close. Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco split work too evenly, while Travis Kelce is too slow and old to have the upside he once did. For one of their players not named Worthy or Mahomes to be worth a captain’s slot, they would very much need to catch multiple short touchdown passes to make up for their lack of overall attempts.

Smith-Schuster doesn’t have the upside he used to, but he’s had a decent floor the last two weeks, even with Worthy back last week. In that game JuJu caught 4-of-6 targets for 36 yards and a touchdown. He was second on the team in targets and appears set to continue to be a solid target for Mahomes underneath.

Washington’s usage has been inconsistent, but he has shown enough to like his upside. He had a kick return touchdown last week and has shown good explosiveness. He’s not a guy I’d like in cash games, but in larger field tournaments he makes sense.

Strange has seen good usage so far, and over the last two games he’s caught 6-of-7 targets in each. He has yet to find the end zone, which is keeping his price down. He’s reliable and should have better upside than he’s shown so far this season.