Kyler Murray is the NFL’s most mediocre quarterback

I’ll own the fact that I have a tendency to defend quarterbacks too much. Much of this is due to the fact that QB success is far more a product of scheme and fit than individual talent, so it’s incredibly easy to see why players struggle when they’re locked on bad teams.

Don’t believe it? Then riddle me this: Why are Baker Mayfield, Daniel Jones, and Sam Darnold absolutely balling out now they’ve found forever homes? Conversely, why has Geno Smith turned into a pumpkin as soon as he landed in Las Vegas?

Even when we consider that reality, there’s a breaking point. A moment where you look at the tools, the team, the system, and it becomes impossible to find any more excuses why a quarterback is playing lackluster football. This isn’t the simple binary of “elite” or “ass,” but the granular difference between being a top-15 quarterback, and someone locked in the 20s — inconsistent when it comes to the most basic elements of the game.

Kyler Murray reached that breaking point on Sunday against the Titans. He cemented himself as a perennially mediocre quarterback who will put together decent stats, but fail in the win column where it matters most. Sure, we can point to the hilariously bad fumble by Emari Demercado as being a true turning point, but the fact the game was so close is an indictment of everything Murray has brought to the quarterback position since arriving in Arizona. All his worst traits, all his bad tendencies, and an unshakable feeling that he simply might not care about winning enough to make it happen.

From 10,000 feet it might not have looked like a bad game by Murray. He went 23-for-31, 220 yards passing without an interception — and ran in a touchdown. It’s the kind of game that lulls you into a false sense of security by believing he might actually be good. The issue isn’t what Murray is, but what he isn’t.

To call the Titans defense dog excrement would be an insult to the “presents” my Staffordshire Bull Terrier leaves in my back yard. I know this because I said it to her face, and she wasn’t pleased.

There is not a single defensive metric in which the Titans haven’t been one of the worst teams in the NFL this season:

When you see this as an opposing quarterback it should make you rub your hands together in anticipation. Instead Murray was incapable of making explosive plays that led to points. Perhaps the biggest indictment of Kyler Murray’s play against the Titans comes from another absolutely hopeless game between two teams this weekend which involved a former No. 1 pick: Miami vs. Carolina.

The Dolphins are equally terrible on defense. They allow more yards on the ground than than the Titans, but fewer passing yards — so it’s more or less a wash. While Bryce Young put the Panthers in hole with a bad fumble and an interception, he also did what Murray couldn’t against Tennessee, which was throw two high-pressure touchdowns. The first to Xavier Legette to begin the comeback, the second at the end of the fourth quarter to win the game. Sprinkle in going 2-for-2 on critical fourth down conversions, just for good measure.

Young was not great against the Dolphins, far from it. This is the lowest possible bar to clear — and Murray ran race-first into it.

The bad part is that Murray is getting objectively worse with each passing year. He has struggled since being removed from Kliff Kingsbury as his offense mastermind, with Murray’s net yards per passing attempt at a career-low 4.81 this season. To make matters worse he’s being sacked 9.04% of passing downs, despite facing the least amount of pressure at any point in his career, only being pressured on 14.4% of snaps.

These pressure numbers aren’t just bad, they’re abysmal. An NFL quarterback should not be eating sacks at that rate when seeing that little pressure. A QB with Murray’s athleticism should be escaping the sack far more often, or throwing it away at the very least. It’s indicative of either a total lack of awareness, or simply not caring to fight for the play.

Murray effectively evades pressure on just 5.36% of snaps. Here’s how that lines up with other NFL quarterbacks this.

Keep in mind that this is across the entire NFL. If we were just factoring in quarterbacks traditionally regarded as “athletic” it would look much, much worse for Kyler Murray.

What we are seeing right now as a quarterback who can’t push the ball downfield, despite playing bad defenses and having good protection. He can’t escape the pass rush. He can’t be counted on to turn a game around. There is nothing inherently required to be “good” at the quarterback position which Murray is excelling at, except perhaps not turning over the ball. However, simply no hurting your team is meaningless when you’re not helping them.

Murray is regressing in a serious way. This is the worst he’s even been, and all the excuses have run out. He has the offensive line, he has the receivers, he’s largely had the running game. The rest is on him, and he stinks — otherwise he wouldn’t lose to a team like the Titans.