Drew Allar’s NFL Draft stock murky amid Penn State’s nightmare season

The wheels have completely come off for Penn State.

A week after losing to previously winless UCLA, when the Nittany Lions were at one point 26.5-point favorites over the Bruins, Penn State lost on Saturday to Northwestern at home. In that contest, the Nittany Lions were 21.5-point favorites, according to FanDuel.

While the loss to the Wildcats has fueled rampant speculation about the future of James Franklin, that game was not the only thing Penn State lost. Starting quarterback Drew Allar went down with a leg injury, one that Franklin has already indicated will end his season. On Sunday, Penn State fired Franklin.

So where does that leave Allar?

Coming into the season, Allar was considered one of the top quarterbacks for the 2026 NFL Draft and was coming off as high as No. 1 in the “way too early” mock drafts that dot the sports media landscape over the summer. His combination of arm strength, movement skills, and prototypical size was a reason why Allar was in that discussion, along with a belief that his game would take a big step forward as the Nittany Lions made a deep playoff run.

Now those dreams are on hold, and Allar’s stock -- which was already starting to drop due to inconsistent play and Penn State’s struggles -- could be falling more.

Here, courtesy of NFL Mock Draft Database, is a look at how Allar has trended in mock drafts dating back to the summer:

While mock drafts are but one data point, and an incomplete picture at that, a leg injury that has already cost him the rest of this season is going to hurt that stock even more. While Allar may seek a medical redshirt so he can return for another collegiate season, current rules make such a move unlikely to succeed. Allar has played in six games this season, over the four games currently allowed under NCAA rules:

If his college career is indeed over, how he fares in the draft may hinge on how quickly he can begin working out for scouts. If Allar can come back ahead of the 2026 NFL Scouting Combine, that would go a long way towards checking those evaluation boxes.

If not, however, evaluators will be relying solely on what Allar did at Penn State.

Again, there are things to like about what he did for the Nittany Lions, even this season before the wheels came off. Throws like this one against Villanova are moments to appreciate:

On this play against Villanova, Allar uses his eyes to hold the safety in the middle of the field, before ripping a post route to Trebor Pena between a pair of defenders for a touchdown.

This play against Oregon -- a “back to the defense” play-action touchdown -- came at a huge moment for Penn State. Allar reads this perfectly, seeing the boundary safety and corner squat on the curl route, and throwing the deep post over the top for the score:

However, scouts will balance plays like those with moments like this, a game-ending interception against Oregon that, in part, started Penn State’s doom-spiral:

Allar’s stock had already taken a hit before the injury, and if he is indeed sidelined throughout the draft process, it will be hard to see him coming off the board before the third day of the draft.

But remember, it just takes one team to believe. And if the NFL is known for anything, it is the belief of a coaching staff that they can develop a player and get the most out of them.

And another thing to remember?

Quarterbacks always rise as we get close to the draft.