Chiefs playoff odds: What the win over the Colts means for their postseason chances

Update: Kansas City gave their playoff hopes a boost with Sunday’s big comeback win against the Indianapolis Colts. With the win, the Chiefs are now 6-5 and their playoff odds have moved up into the 60% range, depending on what resource you use.

Previous: This Sunday the Kansas City Chiefs will host the Indianapolis Colts at Arrowhead Stadium.

If that AFC clash has the feeling of a playoff game, you might understand why in a moment.

Kansas City enters Week 12 on the back of a loss to the Denver Broncos, a defeat that dropped the Chiefs to 5-5 on the season, and four games behind the Broncos in the win column. Not only are the Chiefs now third in the division — behind both the Broncos and the Los Angeles Chargers — but if the playoffs began today, Kansas City would be on the outside looking in. The Chiefs are currently ninth in the AFC, in danger of missing the playoffs for the first time in more than a decade.

And given current playoff probabilities, a loss for Kansas City could crater their playoff chances.

Given that, let’s dive into Kansas City’s playoff odds, starting with where they stand going into Week 12 and how those odds will move depending on whether they win or lose on Sunday.

Depending on what source you use, the Chiefs’ playoff chances are slightly better than a coin flip.

According to projections from NFL.com, Kansas City’s chances of making the field ahead of Week 12 sit at 52%. ESPN’s playoff simulations give the Chiefs a 53% chance of making the playoffs, while Pro Football Focus lists their current odds of qualifying for the playoffs at 55%.

Again, while the numbers may vary slightly, every set of playoff projections indicates that a win for Kansas City would be massive for their playoff hopes. After playing Indianapolis, Kansas City finishes the season with games against the Dallas Cowboys, the Houston Texans, the Los Angeles Chargers, the Tennessee Titans, and the Denver Broncos.

Those games give Kansas City not only some chances to make up ground in the AFC West, but the game against Houston — a team currently ahead of the Chiefs in the Wild Card chase — could be critical.

Returning to Sunday against the Colts, Kansas City’s chances of making the playoffs jump to 63% with a win, according to NFL.com. Pro Football Focus is even more optimistic, listing the Chiefs’ playoff odds at 68% with a win over the Colts.

Here is where the rubber meets the road.

A loss to Indianapolis on Sunday would not doom Kansas City, but their playoff chances would take a substantial hit. According to NFL.com, Kansas City’s playoff chances would drop to 35% with a loss to the Colts.

Pro Football Focus simulations drop the Chiefs’ playoff odds to that same mark.

And looking at the standings, you can see why. Houston’s win on Thursday night moved the Texans to 6-5 on the season, and a Chiefs’ loss on Sunday would drop Kansas City to a full game behind the Texans in the standings.

Then there is the division itself. Kansas City is already four games behind the idle Broncos in the win column. A loss to Indianapolis would not only keep them four games behind Denver in the win column, but drop the Chiefs to four games behind them in the loss column as well. And if the Chargers win on Sunday? That would keep Kansas City three games behind Los Angeles in the win column.

So, who will win on Sunday?

Indianapolis comes in rested after a bye week, and the Colts got some good news on Friday when Daniel Jones — who popped up on the injury report late this week with a leg injury — was cleared to play this weekend.

The Colts are listed as 3.5-point favorites on FanDuel, while in our expert picks here at SB Nation six writers picked Kansas City to win.

The other four picked the Colts.

We’ll find out who was right, and what happens to the Chiefs’ playoff chances, on Sunday.