Best DFS picks for Buccaneers vs Rams in Week 12

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers head to the west coast for a Sunday night matchup with the Los Angeles Rams as 7-point road underdogs. The Rams will be without TE Tyler Higbee, while the Bucs will be without RB Bucky Irving, but they will get WR Chris Godwin back this week.

There are a bunch of strong, and expensive to roster, DFS plays this Sunday night. Besides Matthew Stafford and Baker Mayfield, we have Puka Nacua, Kyren Williams, Davante Adams, and Emeka Egbuka. Most of the offense flows through these guys, especially for the Rams.

The Buccaneers defense, both against the pass and rush, is the weaker of the two and we can lean into playing more Rams than Bucs. They aren’t 7-point favorites for nothing. But, we know Baker Mayfield can will the offense forward at times and if they are trailing, the offense isn’t going to just collapse.

Below we will take a look at the best DFS plays for this Sunday night showdown.

With Chris Godwin returning, we could see a little pressure taken off Egbuka, but I also don’t expect Godwin to push the rookie enough to decrease his target load. Egbuka has had nine or more targets four games in a row and with the Bucs likely trailing this week, I’d expect a high target number once again. That’s all you can ask for when playing a top receiver.

Nacua will be heavily rostered due to his extreme consistency and upside. He’s going to put up good numbers, the question is how good? The Buccaneers have been eighth-worst in schedule adjusted fantasy points allowed to wide receivers this season. Going up against what can be a good offense in primetime also gives a bit more juice to their WR1. This is a game they should have no trouble getting him going. If you can fit Davante Adams in that would be great as well, especially on FanDuel, as his red zone usage does help him in half PPR scoring. But we know who has the highest upside each week and it’s Nacua. You can fade him to get different, but if he has a ceiling game, you’ll be in trouble.

I like Williams as a bit of a contrarian play. The general read on the Buccaneers is that they have a better run defense than pass, but the stats do show their run defense has also been weak this season. They’ve allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to running backs and when you adjust that for schedule, they sit at eighth-most. Williams does cede more work than I’d like to Blake Corum, but he’s still the lead and goal line back for the most part. Corum makes for a decent value play, but if the Rams get a lead and the run game going, Williams could run away with the highest fantasy point total of the night.

Godwin’s return could hurt Otton, but it might dip into WR Sterling Shepard’s work more. The Rams are weakest against tight ends, as seen by AJ Barner’s 10 receptions last week. They won that game, and pushing targets toward the tight end instead of the Seahawks wide receivers might have been the plan. If that were to happen this week, Otton would be up for the task. He’s sure handed and a good safety blanket for Mayfield when his receivers aren’t getting open.

With Tyler Higbee out, Parkinson should be the lead tight end. Parkinson has scored a touchdown in each of the last two games as well. The fact that his price is still relatively low is great, as we know he’s a strong red zone target and he will see extra snaps with Higbee out.

I can see fading Godwin as he comes off yet another injury, but there is a chance he steps up to a big role like he did after returning from his devastating ankle injury earlier in the season. In his first game back in Week 4, he had 10 targets against the Eagles. He didn’t do much with those, catching just three for 26 yards, but it was the thought that counts. There’s no doubt Mayfield trusts him, and as long as he’s not on a snap count, he should be involved in the offense as usual.