NFL playoff picture: What the Falcons win over the Bucs mean for NFC standings in Week 15

Sunday update: With the Panthers losing to the Saints 20-17 on Sunday, the Buccaneers have jumped back into first place in the NFC South. They still own the common opponent tiebreaker over the Panthers and the two teams will finally meet in Charlotte next Sunday.

Game result: The Falcons stunned the Bucs in Tampa on Thursday night, kicking a game-winning field goal as time expired to win 29-26. The Bucs led or were tied for much of the first half, but Kirk Cousins put together a huge stretch, throwing for 373 yards and three touchdowns, all three scores coming on Kyle Pitts receptions. Zane Gonzalez converted the game-winning field goal after Cousins converted a 4th and 14 in the final minute.

The loss drops the Bucs to 7-7 and they head into Week 15 Sunday a half game back of the Panthers in the NFC South. The Bucs entered the game with a 70% chance of making the playoffs, according to The Athletic’s playoff simulator. The loss dropped their chances to 54% and eliminates them from competition for the No. 1 seed.

The Panthers are facing the Saints in New Orleans on Sunday with a chance to take a full game lead in the division. Tampa travels to Carolina next week.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will host the Atlanta Falcons tonight in a Week 15 showdown that will have massive implications in the NFC South. The Falcons were officially eliminated from playoff contention last week and will try to play spoiler to a Bucs squad that is under a bit of pressure heading into this game.

Tampa has lost four of its last five contests and has seen its once comfortable lead atop the division wither away over the past month. The Bucs’ quest for a fifth-straight division title will now be a dogfight the rest of the way, but the offense is at least getting a major reinforcement for the home stretch with Mike Evans returning from injured reserve.

The Buccaneers enter Week 15 sharing the same record with the Panthers atop the NFC South at 7-6, but have the tiebreaker edge due to a better record against common opponents. They’d maintain their edge with a win tonight, but could potentially fall behind a full game with a loss and a Carolina victory over New Orleans this Sunday.

Both of their head-to-head games are coming up in Week 16 and Week 18, respectively, so it very important for the Bucs to handle business ahead of those season-defining showdowns.

The Buccaneers currently own the No. 4 seed in the NFC standings, meaning they would host the No. 5 Seahawks in the NFC Wild Card round if the season were to end today. They’d switch spots with the Panthers at No. 9 with a loss tonight, but would be propelled right back up to No. 4 if the Panthers were to lose their matchup with the Saints on Sunday.

It’s still possible for the Bucs to move up in the NFC standings down the stretch, but they’re effectively two games behind the Eagles for the No. 3 seed due to Philly owning the direct head-to-head tiebreaker. A loss tonight would also officially eliminate Tampa Bay from one-seed contention, though the likelihood of that happening was already slim.