NFL playoff picture: What the Ravens win over Bengals means for AFC standings in Week 15

Monday update: The Steelers beat the Dolphins on Monday Night Football and maintained their one game lead on the Ravens in the AFC North race.

Update: Baltimore’s 24-0 win over Cincinnati has eliminated the Bengals from playoff contention. Baltimore remains in the mix in both the AFC North and the AFC overall. They await the Steelers Monday result against the Dolphins.

Previously: Two AFC North rivals clash Sunday when the Cincinnati Bengals host the Baltimore Ravens.

The game — which may be played in frigid conditions — has significant playoff implications for both teams. One team can be eliminated from the playoffs entirely with a loss, while the other can keep pace in the division with a win.

Let’s break down the implications for both the Ravens and the Bengals in this playoff game.

The Ravens need a win on Sunday to keep pace in the AFC North, and keep their hopes of a playoff spot alive.

Right now Baltimore trails the Pittsburgh Steelers by one game in the division, and a loss on Sunday to Cincinnati — and a Steelers win on Monday Night Football over the Miami Dolphins — would drop Baltimore two games behind Pittsburgh in the division. And with the Steelers beating the Ravens last week, Pittsburgh holds a tiebreaker advantage at the moment.

However, Baltimore could pull even with the Steelers with a win this weekend, coupled with a Pittsburgh loss to Miami. Both teams would have 7-7 records with three games remaining. While the Steelers would still be in first place due to their win over Baltimore, the Ravens would be in much better shape.

Until you look at their respective schedules. The Ravens’ final three games are against the New England Patriots, the Green Bay Packers, and the Steelers, with only the game against New England at home. After playing the Dolphins, Pittsburgh finishes with games against the Detroit Lions, the Cleveland Browns, and the Ravens, with the season finale taking place in Pittsburgh.

Things are rather simple for the Bengals this weekend.

With a loss in this game, Cincinnati is eliminated from playoff contention.

There is also another scenario where the Bengals can be eliminated from playoff contention this weekend. If the Bengals tie with the Ravens, and the Steelers beat the Miami on Monday Night Football, then the Bengals are eliminated from playoff contention.

Why would the Bengals be eliminated with a loss to the Ravens? A loss would drop the Bengals to 4-10 with three games remaining, and they could not catch any of the contenders for the Wild Card spots, all of whom have at least eight wins right now.

Regarding the AFC North, if the Bengals lose on Sunday the Ravens would improve to 7-7, and the two teams will have split the season series. But even if the Bengals were to win out and finish 7-10, and the Ravens were to lose the rest of their games and also finish 7-10, Cincinnati would be out. To work through this, if the two teams finish tied at 7-10 and split the season series, the tiebreaker would move to the second step. On the next tiebreaker — division record — Cincinnati would hold the advantage and finish ahead of Baltimore.

But they would finish second in the AFC North behind Pittsburgh.

Why? Even if the Bengals were to win out from there, and Baltimore lost the rest of their games, one of Baltimore’s remaining games comes against the Steelers.

That means that in a world where the Bengals win out after losing to the Ravens on Sunday, and Baltimore wins Sunday and loses the rest of their games, so the two teams finish with matching 7-10 records, Pittsburgh will win the division. The Steelers and the Ravens play in Week 18, and the Steelers currently have a 7-6 record. That means to complete this scenario, the Steelers would have at least eight wins, with a win against Baltimore in Week 18, to claim the AFC North.

These two teams met on Thanksgiving night, with the Bengals taking the win in Joe Burrow’s return to the lineup.

A Cincinnati win would give the Bengals a season sweep over the Ravens, which could come into play if the two teams finish tied. As noted above a Baltimore win would eliminate the Bengals from playoff contention.

Here are the AFC standings heading into Week 15:

Here are the current AFC North standings: