NFL playoff picture: What Broncos win over Packers means for NFC & AFC standings

Update: With their win over the Green Bay Packers, the Denver Broncos have clinched a spot in the playoffs. They remain in the No. 1 spot right now, with an added advantage over the New ENgland Patriots due to their loss to the Buffalo Bills earlier in the day.

As for the Packers, the loss dropped them to 9-4-1 on the season, and all the way down to the No. 7 spot in the NFC playoff picture.

Previous: The NFL heads into Week 15 with several huge games on the slate, and Sunday will feature a potential Super Bowl preview (and rematch) when the Denver Broncos host the Green Bay Packers. The game kicks off at 4:25 p.m. ET and by the end of it, either team could be in the top spot in their conference.

The Packers enter the game with a 9-3-1 record and have won four straight. Notably, they held off the Bears last week to take the divisional lead. The Broncos enter the game with an 11-2 record. Last week, they held off the Raiders in Las Vegas to win their tenth straight game.

Green Bay is a 2.5-point road favorite in this matchup.

The Packers have a half game lead on the Bears and a 1.5 game lead on the Lions in the division. The Bears are hosting the Browns this week, while the Lions are on the road against the Rams. Green Bay cannot clinch a playoff berth this week, but they can move themselves into position to clinch at least a wild card berth next week with a win and a Lions loss this week.

Green Bay enters the game with a 58% chance of winning the division and hosting a wild card round game at The Athletic’s playoff simulator. A win over the Broncos would increase that to 62% while a loss would drop it to 54%.

The Packers are in second place, a half game back of the Rams for the No. 1 seed. While a Lions loss to the Rams helps the Packers get closer to clinching a playoff berth, a Lions upset of the Rams would be more valuable since it would open the door to the No. 1 seed. The playoff simulator gives the Packers a 10% chance of claiming the No. 1 seed. A win this week moves it to 19% and a Lions upset of the Rams added to that improves the Packers chances at a No. 1 seed to 27%. A loss this week drops their chances at the No. 1 seed to 1%.

The Broncos can clinch a playoff berth this week with a win, but the earliest they can clinch the division title is next week. The Chargers are two games ahead of the Chargers, but lost the first head-to-head game with them. The two teams face off in Week 18, so it’s possible that a late Broncos collapse could turn that game into the division-decider. The Chargers are traveling to face the Chiefs this week. The Broncos enter Sunday with a 47% chance of winning the division and hosting a wild card round game. A win actually decreases that to 39% because their chances at the No. 1 seed become their most likely result. A loss improves their hosting a wild card round matchup to 56% because their chances at a No. 1 seed decline and they’re such strong division favorites.

Denver is in first place in the conference, holding the conference record tiebreaker over the Patriots. If both teams win out, that will also be a tie and the tiebreaker will move to common games. The Patriots Week 1 loss to the Raiders would decide that in favor of the Broncos if both teams win out. They have a 39% chance of claiming the No. 1 seed. A win improves that to 55% and a loss decreases that to 24%.

This game has no tiebreaker implications. The Broncos were a common opponent for the Packers and Eagles, but Philadelphia beat Green Bay for the head-to-head tiebreaker, and a tie on Green Bay’s record means we likely won’t see a tiebreaker needed against Philly.