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NFL playoff picture: What Panthers win over Bucs means for NFC South standings in Week 16

The Buccaneers face the Panthers in Charlotte on Sunday. We break down what the game means for the NFL playoff picture in Week 16.

Carolina Panthers v Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Carolina Panthers v Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Getty Images

Update: Carolina defeated Tampa Bay 23-20 in Week 16 to take the lead atop the NFC South standings. The Panthers can officially clinch the division title next week with a victory over the Seahawks and a Buccaneers loss to the Dolphins. Otherwise, the division will be decided in a winner-take-all rematch between these two teams in Week 18.


The NFC South has been a bit of a mess this season, and while we probably will not see a sub-.500 team win the division, the winner won’t be getting a lot of support as a playoff favorite. The division title will come down to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers, and they kick off a final three-week run that will decide it.

The Bucs and Panthers have yet to face each other this season, saving their two matchups for the final three weeks of the season. The Panthers host the first one in Week 16 and the Bucs host the season finale in Week 18.

Tampa Bay has lost two straight and five of its last six games to blow what had been a strong start to the season. The Bucs went into their bye with a 6-2 record and have since collapsed even as they start to get healthier. Over the past two weeks, they’ve lost back-to-back divisional home games in which they were favored. They lost 24-20 to the Saints and then 29-28 to the Falcons.

Carolina blew a huge opportunity last week in losing 20-17 to New Orleans. The Panthers came out of their bye off a huge win over the Rams. When they Bucs lost to the Falcons on Thursday Night Football in Week 15, it opened the door for the Panthers to take a one-game lead. Instead, they blew it against the Saints and now the division is all but certain to come down to Week 18.

The Bucs are a three-point road favorite in this game.

NFC South playoff picture

It’s a straight forward final three weeks of the season. Neither team can claim a wild card berth, and so it comes down to the division title or bust. In between their two matchups, the Bucs travel to face the Dolphins while the Panthers host the Seahawks.

The two teams head into this game with the Bucs sitting in first place due to the common games tiebreaker. If they split these final two games and both teams win in Week 17, the Bucs will claim the division title with the common games tiebreaker. We won’t know whether the Week 18 contest in Tampa matters until after both teams wrap up Week 17.

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