NFL playoff picture: What Seahawks win over Rams means for NFC standings in Week 16

Monday update: The 49ers beat the Colts on Monday to close out Week 16. San Francisco moves into a tie with the Rams in the NFC West, with both teams trailing the Seahawks by one game. There are various potential permutations to who will win the NFC West and what it will mean for the No. 1 seed, but for the time-being, the Seahawks control their destiny.

Game result: The Seahawks stunned the Rams in a wild affair on Thursday Night Football to open Week 16. LA took a 30-14 lead and seemed to have Sam Darnold’s number, but huge special teams plays turned it around and the Seahawks stormed back to tie the game at 30. The teams exchanged multiple punts and the Rams missed a field goal, all resulting in overtime. The Rams drove down 80 yards on eight plays to open the extra frame and scored a touchdown on a Puka Nacua 41-yard score. The Seahawks responded with their own touchdown drive and elected to go for two due to the limited time left. They pulled it off when Sam Darnold found Eric Saubert for the conversion and secured the 38-37 win.

The Seahawks improved to 12-3 with the win and move into first place in the NFC West. Additionally, they take over first place in the NFC overall standings. They secured a season split with the Seahawks, but also still have to face the 10-4 49ers in Week 18. If the Seahawks win next week and the 49ers win this week and next week, that Week 18 game will be for the NFC West title and the No. 1 seed.

The Rams drop to 11-4 and will drop to third place if the 49ers beat the Colts on Monday. LA and San Francisco split the season series and the 49ers lead in the division record tiebreaker.

The NFL kicks off Week 16 with the biggest matchup of the week. Thursday Night Football will feature the 11-3 Seattle Seahawks hosting the 11-3 Los Angeles Rams. The winner will hold the No. 1 seed in the NFC West, while the loser will be looking at a wild card slot.

The Rams are coming off a tough but critical 41-34 win over the Lions. It was their second straight win and eighth win in nine games. The Seahawks enter the game off an ugly 18-16 win over the Colts. Philip Rivers came back from retirement to nearly lead Indy to victory, but the Seahawks escaped with a game-winning field goal in the closing seconds.

This is the second game between the Rams and Seahawks. LA won at home in Week 11, holding off Seattle in spite of Matthew Stafford throwing four interceptions. The Rams are a 1.5-point road favorite in the matchup.

The Rams clinched a playoff berth this past Sunday, claiming the first spot in the NFC. The Seahawks can clinch a playoff berth this week with a win or a Lions loss. Neither team will clinch the NFC West this week, and it is a good bet the division race comes down to Week 18.

The 49ers sit a game back of the Rams and Seahawks. They split the season series with LA and won the first matchup with Seattle. The 49ers and Seahawks close out the season in Week 18, so this TNF game could turn that matchup into a battle for the division. Heading into Week 16, The Athletic’s playoff simulator gives the Rams a 60% chance of clinching the division, the Seahawks a 27% chance, and the 49ers a 13% chance.

The 49ers travel to face the Colts in Week 18.

The NFC West winner is in a strong position to claim the No. 1 seed in the NFC. The playoff simulator gives the Rams a 56% chance, the Seahawks, 26% chance, and the 49ers a 12% chance. For the time-being, the Rams hold the No. 1 seed, the Seahawks sit in fifth place, and the 49ers are in sixth place. The 49ers and Bears face off in Week 17, which will decide that tiebreaker. The Bears do not face the Rams or Seahawks this season, so it will come down to conference record, common games record, or any of the other tiebreakers.

This game is huge for the NFC West tiebreaker. A Rams win secures the head-to-head tiebreaker for LA. A Seahawks win splits the series and moves it to divisional record or further down the tiebreaker ladder.