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NFL playoff picture: How the Bills can clinch a playoff berth in Week 16

Bills. We break down how they can clinch a spot in the 2026 NFL Playoffs in Week 16.

NFL: Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
NFL: Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
David Butler II-Imagn Images
Mark Schofield
Mark Schofield is a former college quarterback and attorney covering the NFL and F1.

Monday update: The Bills officially clinched a playoff berth on Monday after the Colts lost to the 49ers to close out Week 16. Indy’s loss officially punched the playoff ticket for the Bills, Jaguars, and Chargers. The Bills moved to a game back of the Patriots after the latter’s loss to the Ravens on Sunday, so they still have the division title on their mind. But for now, they know they’re headed back to the playoffs.

Update (Sunday evening): With the Texans defeating the Las Vegas Raiders, the Bills cannot clinch a playoff spot today. However, if the Colts lose or tie against the San Francisco 49ers, then the Bills are in the playoffs.

If the Colts win on Monday night, the Bills cannot clinch until Week 17.

Update (Sunday afternoon): Buffalo’s win in Cleveland over the Browns improved their record to 11-4.

While it was not enough to clinch a playoff spot for the Bills, it did move them one step closer to the postseason. Buffalo can clinch a playoff spot later today if the Houston Texans lose or tie against the Las Vegas Raiders.
If that does not happen, Buffalo can clinch a playoff spot tomorrow night if the Indianapolis Colts lose or tie against the San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football.


With their win over the New England Patriots last weekend, the Buffalo Bills kept their hopes for another AFC East title alive.

But here in Week 16, the Bills can take their next step to Super Bowl LX, by clinching a playoff spot.

Here is how Buffalo can lock up a spot in the AFC playoffs this weekend.

Buffalo Bills playoff berth clinching scenarios

The Bills travel to northeast Ohio to take on the Cleveland Browns on Sunday, and that game gives them a chance to book a spot in the AFC playoffs.

But they might have to wait until Monday night to celebrate.

There are four ways Buffalo can clinch a playoff berth here in Week 16. The first (and the most probable) comes with a win over the Browns, and an Indianapolis Colts loss or tie against the San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football. While that game is in Indianapolis, the visiting 49ers are favored.

Buffalo can also clinch a playoff spot with a win over the Browns, and a Houston Texans loss or tie against the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday. However, the Texans are heavy favorites in that game, making this the less-likely path.

Buffalo can also clinch a playoff spot if their game against Cleveland ends in a tie. If that game ends tied, a Colts loss OR a Texans loss gets the Bills into the playoffs.

AFC standings entering Week 16

Here are the full AFC standings as Week 16 begins:

  1. Denver Broncos (12-2) - x
  2. New England Patriots (11-3)
  3. Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4)
  4. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6)
  5. Los Angeles Chargers (10-4)
  6. Buffalo Bills (10-4)
  7. Houston Texans (9-5)
  8. Indianapolis Colts (8-6)
  9. Baltimore Ravens (7-7)
  10. Kansas City Chiefs (6-8) - e
  11. Miami Dolphins (6-8) - e
  12. Cincinnati Bengals (4-10) - e
  13. New York Jets (3-11) - e
  14. Cleveland Browns (3-11) - e
  15. Las Vegas Raiders (2-12) - e
  16. Tennessee Titans (2-12) - e

x - Team has clinched a playoff spot
e - Team has been eliminated from playoff contention

AFC East standings

Here are the full standings in the AFC East, where the Bills are now just one game behind the Patriots:

  1. New England Patriots (11-3)
  2. Buffalo Bills (10-4)
  3. Miami Dolphins (6-8) - e
  4. New York Jets (3-11) - e

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