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NFL playoff picture: How the 49ers can clinch a playoff berth in Week 16

The San Francisco 49ers are 10-4 and travel to face the Indianapolis Colts on Monday. We break down how they can clinch a spot in the 2026 NFL Playoffs in Week 16.

NFL: DEC 14 Titans at 49ers
NFL: DEC 14 Titans at 49ers
Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Sunday result: The Pittsburgh Steelers held off a last second drive by the Detroit Lions to hold on for a 29-24 win in the Motor City. The Lions loss means the San Francisco 49ers are officially in the playoffs. The 49ers needed either a win or a Lions loss to clinch their spot in the 2026 NFL Playoffs. The Chicago Bears also clinched a playoff berth with the Lions loss.


The San Francisco 49ers have struggled with an assortment of injuries this season, but unlike last year, they’ve been able to make do with the remaining roster and are in position to clinch a playoff berth.

The 49ers travel to face the Indianapolis Colts in Week 16. The 49ers have won four straight, beating the Cardinals, Panthers, Browns, and Titans. This matchup against the Colts was looking like a step up in difficulty, and while it still might be, the scenario has changed for Indianapolis.

Last week, the Colts placed Daniel Jones on injured reserve after he tore his Achilles tendon in Week 14. The team then signed Philip Rivers in hopes of saving their season. Coming out of their Week 11 bye, the Colts had lost three straight and were traveling to face the Seahawks in Week 15. The return of the long-retired Rivers did not seem like the best idea, but they almost pulled off the stunner. The Colts led for most of the game, with their defense in particular impressing. But they were unable to pull off the shocker as the Seahawks won on a 56-yard field goal with 18 seconds remaining.

The 49ers’ struggling run defense will have to figure out a way to contain Colts running back Jonathan Taylor, but San Francisco is a 5.5-point road favorite in this one.

San Francisco 49ers playoff berth clinching scenarios

The 49ers can clinch with one of three options, although only two of them are real possibilities. The 49ers can clinch a playoff berth with one of these three scenarios:

  • 49ers win, OR
  • Lions lose, OR
  • 49ers tie and Lions tie

The Packers and Cowboys played to a tie in Week 4, but that’s the only tie this season. Assuming we remove that option, the 49ers are in with a win or the Detroit Lions losing at home to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Both teams are 8-6 coming into the game. The Lions have alternated wins and losses dating back to Week 5 as they have been unable to get on track. They are in third place in the NFC North and in eighth place overall in the conference. The Steelers have won two straight with big wins over the Ravens and Dolphins to secure a one-game lead in the AFC South and fourth place overall in the AFC standings.

The Lions are a 6.5-point favorite in this game.

NFC standings entering Week 16

  1. Los Angeles Rams: 11-3
  2. Chicago Bears: 10-4
  3. Philadelphia Eagles: 9-5
  4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 7-7
  5. Seattle Seahawks: 11-3
  6. San Francisco 49ers: 10-4
  7. Green Bay Packers: 9-4-1
  8. Detroit Lions: 8-6
  9. Carolina Panthers: 7-7
  10. Dallas Cowboys: 6-7-1
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