NFL playoff picture: How Broncos can clinch the AFC West and No. 1 seed in Week 17

Update (Sunday): The Broncos were unable to clinch the No. 1 seed in Week 17. The Patriots thumped the Jets on Sunday, which ended this week’s clinching scenario. Denver and New England are tied atop the AFC standings, but Denver holds the common games tiebreaker. The Broncos can clinch the No. 1 seed in Week 18 with a win or if they lose, losses by the Patriots to the Dolphins and the Jaguars to the Titans.

Update (Saturday): The Broncos have clinched the AFC West title. The Chargers lost 20-16 to the Texans on Saturday, which officially clinched the division title for Denver. They could clinch the top seed with some more help on Sunday, but for now they’re guaranteed a top three seed in the 2026 NFL Playoffs.

Update (Christmas night): Denver’s win over the Chiefs on Christmas night keeps both of their scenarios alive for Week 17. The Broncos will clinch the AFC West with a Chargers loss or tie to the Texans on Saturday night. Denver can also clinch the No. 1 seed in the conference with a Patriots loss to the Jets, a Chargers loss or tie to the Texans, a Jaguars loss or tie against the Colts, and a Bills loss or tie against the Eagles.

The Denver Broncos travel to GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on Christmas night to take on the Kansas City Chiefs.

And the Broncos can make it a wonderful Christmas for themselves and their fans with a win over their division rivals, and a little bit of help from around the rest of the league. Denver can clinch both the AFC West, and the No. 1 seed in the AFC, here in Week 17.

Let’s breakdown how.

The Denver Broncos last won the AFC West back in 2015.

Peyton Manning — yes, the guy from the commercials — was their starting quarterback.

But Denver can clinch the AFC West title this week, officially bringing to an end the Kansas City Chiefs’ reign atop the division. With a win over the Chiefs on Christmas night, and a Los Angeles Chargers loss or tie against the Houston Texans on Saturday, the Broncos are AFC West champions.

Denver can also clinch the AFC West with a tie against the Chiefs, provided the Chargers lose to the Texans.

Not only can Denver clinch the AFC West this weekend, but the Broncos also have a narrow path to clinching the No. 1 seed in the AFC, something that again the team has not accomplished since that 2015 season.

However, Denver would need a lot of help to wrap that up this weekend.

First, the Broncos would need to win against the Chiefs on Thursday night. Then, the Broncos would need the New England Patriots to lose to the New York Jets, the Chargers to lose or tie against the Texans, the Jacksonville Jaguars to lose or tie against the Indianapolis Colts, and the Buffalo Bills to lose or tie against the Philadelphia Eagles.

So you’re saying there’s a chance …

Here are the full AFC standings heading into Week 17:

x - Team has clinched a playoff spot
e - Team has been eliminated from playoff contention

AFC West standings entering Week 17

Here are the full AFC West standings with two weeks left in the season: