NFL playoff picture: What does Patriots-Jets mean for AFC standings in Week 17

4 p.m. window update: The Eagles beat the Bills courtesy of a last second stop on a Buffalo two-point conversion attempt. The Bills loss means the Patriots have clinched the AFC East title. They now will play for the No. 1 seed in Week 18.

Game update: The Patriots’ blowout win over the Jets has New England on the cusp of clinching the AFC East title. If the Bills lose or tie against the Philadelphia Eagles later today, the Patriots will wrap up the division title.

If the Bills win that game, the Patriots will have to wait until Week 18 to clinch the division. New England would just need a win over the Miami Dolphins to clinch their first division title since 2019.

New England’s win also denied the Broncos a chance at wrapping up the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Both teams are now 13-3, and while the Broncos have a tiebreaker advantage over New England based on their record against common opponents, the Patriots can still secure the No. 1 seed in Week 18 with a win and a Denver loss.

Two AFC East rivals meet on Sunday at MetLife Stadium.

One team has already clinched a playoff spot, but the other would love to play spoiler.

Here is what is at stake Sunday when the New York Jets host the New England Patriots.

The Patriots control their own destiny in the race with the Buffalo Bills for the division title, but to clinch this weekend, they will need a little bit of help from a team that beat them in Super Bowl LII.

New England sits atop the division with a 12-3 record, one game ahead of the 11-4 Bills. The Patriots missed a golden opportunity to clinch the division back in Week 15 when they blew a 24-7 halftime lead to the Bills, but still remain in the driver’s seat in the division title race. With wins in their final two games (starting this weekend against the New York Jets, and then in the season finale against the Miami Dolphins), then the Patriots are division champions.

However, New England can clinch the division this weekend, and start celebrating early. With a win over the Jets, and a Bills loss or tie against the Philadelphia Eagles, the Patriots are AFC East champions.

New England can also clinch the division with a tie against the Jets, and a Bills loss to the Eagles.

The Patriots are also in the running for the No. 1 seed in the AFC, but the advantage is in the Denver Broncos’ favor. Denver’s win over the Kansas City Chiefs on Christmas night improved their record to 13-3, and the Broncos have already clinched a tiebreaker advantage over the Patriots based on common games, which is the third tiebreaker after head-to-head (these two teams did not play this year) and record in conference games.

New England needs to win to keep their hopes for the No. 1 seed alive. A loss eliminates the Patriots from contention for the top spot in the AFC.

With the Jets already eliminated from the playoffs, this game has no tiebreaker implications between the two teams.

However, it could play a role in the chase for the AFC East title. Right now the Patriots have a one-game lead over the Bills, and with the two teams having split the season series, the second tiebreaker is division record. New England has a 3-1 record in AFC East games (with the Jets and Miami Dolphins remaining) while the Bills are 3-2, with the Jets on the schedule in Week 18. A New England loss to the Jets opens the door to the Patriots and Bills finishing with the same division record, which would then move the AFC East title to the third tiebreaker, which is record in common games. Right now the Patriots are 9-1 in those games while the Bills are 9-2, but a loss to the Jets would drop New England to 9-2.

Which would potentially mean the AFC East title would be decided by the fourth tiebreaker, AFC record. Entering Week 17 the Bills have a better record in conference games, 8-3 versus 7-3.