NFL playoff picture: What Jaguars win over Titans means for AFC standings in Week 18

Sunday evening update: The Broncos and Patriots won their respective games in the late window, meaning the Jaguars will have the No. 3 seed in the AFC playoffs. They will host the No. 6 Bills in the AFC Wild Card round next weekend.

Game result: The Jaguars handled their business on Sunday, crushing the Jaguars with ease. They jumped out to a 31-7 first half lead, capped by Cam Little drilling a 67-yard field goal, and cruised to victory on a solid performance by quarterback Trevor Lawrence. The win clinched the AFC South title for the Jaguars. They will be no worse than the No. 3 seed, and could climb as high as the No. 1 seed if the Broncos and Patriots both lose their 4:25 p.m. ET games.

The final day of the 2025 NFL regular season will see the Jacksonville Jaguars host the Tennessee Titans in an AFC South showdown.

While the Titans have already been eliminated from the playoffs, and are already shuffling the deck ahead of a critical offseason, the Jaguars still clinched a spot in the postseason, and have some business to take care of on the final Sunday.

Here is what Jaguars-Titans means for the AFC playoff picture.

Let’s start with the AFC South.

As the final week begins, Jacksonville sits third in the AFC overall, and atop the AFC South, with a 12-4 record.

The Houston Texans are one game back at 11-5.

That means the Jaguars have a one-game lead over the Houston Texans heading into the final day of the season. While both teams have clinched a playoff spot, hosting a home game is worth fighting for in Week 18.

The Jaguars play the Tennessee Titans on Sunday, while the Texans play the Indianapolis Colts. Jacksonville secures the AFC South with a win or a tie against the Titans. However, they are still AFC South champions with a loss, provided the Texans lose or tie against the Colts.

The AFC South is not the only thing the Jaguars can clinch this weekend.

Jacksonville still has an outside shot at the No. 1 seed.

Right now the Denver Broncos have the inside track to that spot with a 13-3 record. While the Broncos and the Patriots have matching records, Denver has already clinched a tiebreaker advantage over New England based on their record in common games.

Jacksonville is one game back, at 12-4.

But if the Jaguars beat the Titans, they lock up the No. 1 seed if the Broncos lose to the Los Angeles Chargers, and the Patriots lose to the Miami Dolphins.

It is also worth noting that if the Jaguars miss out on the AFC South with a loss, they could fall all the way to the No. 7 seed. If the Jaguars lose to the Titans, the Texans beat the Colts, the Chargers beat the Broncos, the Buffalo Bills beat the New York Jets, and then at least five of these teams win — the Cowboys, the Eagles, the Vikings, the Buccaneers, the Seahawks, the Rams, the Dolphins, and the Steelers — then the Jaguars are the No. 7 seed.

It … probably will not come to that. But if it does, you will be ready, dear reader.

With the Titans already eliminated from the playoffs, this game does not have any tiebreaker implications between the two teams. The outcome only impacts the Jaguars’ seeding for the playoffs, as broken down above.