NFL playoff picture: What does Broncos’ win over Chargers mean for AFC standings in Week 18

Game update (Sunday evening): The Broncos defeated the Chargers 19-3 on Sunday and have officially clinched the No. 1 seed, a first-round bye, and homefield advantage in the AFC. The Chargers are locked into the No. 7 and will visit the No. 2 Patriots in the AFC Wild Card round next weekend.

Game update (Sunday afternoon): Jacksonville’s win over the Titans means the Jaguars are still alive in the race for No. 1.

Both the Los Angeles Chargers and the Denver Broncos have clinched playoff spots.

But there is still the matter of the No. 1 seed to be settled in the AFC, which means their meeting in Week 18 will still shape the AFC playoff picture.

Let’s dive into what is at stake for both teams when they meet on Sunday afternoon.

As noted above, the Los Angeles Chargers have already clinched a playoff spot. If the AFC playoffs began today the Chargers would be the No. 6 seed in the AFC, and would make the trip east to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars on Wild Card Weekend.

However, the Chargers were eliminated in the race for the AFC West last week with a loss to the Houston Texans, so Jim Harbaugh has already announced that starting quarterback Justin Herbert will not start on Sunday. It is widely expected that the Chargers will rest more starters, and oddsmakers have already installed the Broncos as 12.5-point favorites.

Still, this game does matter for the Chargers’ seed in the playoffs. Los Angeles can rise to the No. 5 seed in the AFC, with the easiest path a win over Denver and a Houston Texans’ loss or tie against the Indianapolis Colts. They can also secure the No. 5 seed with a tie against the Broncos, a Texans loss to the Colts and a Buffalo Bills loss or tie against the New York Jets.

However, the Chargers would fall to No. 7 with a loss, and a Bills’ win or tie against the Jets.

As noted above, the Broncos have already clinched the AFC West.

However, their sights are now set on the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

While the New England Patriots and the Jacksonville Jaguars are both alive in the race for No. 1, only the Broncos control their own destiny. While they have the same 13-3 record as the Patriots, Denver has already clinched a tiebreaker advantage over New England based on their record in common games.

That gives the Broncos an edge this weekend.

With a win over the Chargers, the Broncos are the No. 1 seed in the AFC, and will have a bye week ahead of the Divisional Round.

Even if the Chargers were to win, Denver can still clinch the No. 1 seed with a loss. If the Patriots lose to the Miami Dolphins, and the Jaguars lose or tie against the Tennessee Titans, the Broncos are the No. 1 seed.

Denver also clinches the top spot in the AFC with a tie, provided the Patriots lose or tie against the Dolphins.

Both teams have already clinched the playoffs.