NFL playoff picture: What does Saints-Falcons mean for the NFC South in Week 18

Game result: The Falcons held off the Saints late to win 19-17. Atlanta finished the season in a tie for first with the Panthers and Bucs. Due to that result, Carolina won the division based on their overall head-to-head record against Atlanta and Tampa Bay.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers just defeated the Carolina Panthers 16-14 in a battle at the top of the NFC South standings.

But any celebrations will need to wait until Sunday.

Tampa Bay’s win improved their record to 8-9, while dropping the Panthers to 8-9. But a division winner will not be crowned until tomorrow, following the game between the New Orleans Saints and the Atlanta Falcons. Because the outcome of that came could lead to the Panthers winning the division, or the Buccaneers winning the division.

Here is what the game between the Saints and the Falcons means for the NFC South.

Tampa Bay’s win on Saturday afternoon improved their record to 8-9, while dropping. the Panthers to 8-9.

But it was not enough to clinch the division for the Buccaneers, at least not yet.

That is because the Falcons could join the Panthers and the Buccaneers at 8-9 atop the NFC South standings. Atlanta enters the final day of the 2025 NFL regular season with a 7-9 record, and a win over the 6-10 Saints would improve the Falcons’ record to 8-9, right along with Carolina and Tampa Bay.

With the three teams tied at 8-9, the first tiebreaker when there are three teams tied is the head-to-head record among the three teams. With Tampa Bay’s win over the Panthers, the Buccaneers are now 2-2 in games among the three teams (1-1 versus the Panthers, and 1-1 against Atlanta). Carolina is now 3-1, having swept Atlanta and split the season series with the Buccaneers.

Atlanta is 1-3 in their games among the three teams.

So while Tampa Bay beat the Panthers on Saturday, if Atlanta beats New Orleans to improve their record to 8-9, that would trigger the three-way tiebreaker outlined above, and the Panthers would be the division champions.

However, if the Saints win or tie tomorrow, that means the Falcons finish the season with either a 7-10 record, or a 7-9-1 record. That would leave the Buccaneers and Panthers tied atop the division with 8-9 records. Having split the season series, the second tiebreaker between two teams is division record, Tampa Bay’s win pulled the Buccaneers even with the Panthers in that category as well.

The third tiebreaker is record in common games, and Tampa Bay has already clinched that tiebreaker over the Panthers. So provided the Saints win tomorrow, the Buccaneers are headed to the playoffs.

Despite losing to the Buccaneers, the Panthers can still win the NFC South as outlined above. If the Falcons defeat the Saints, that creates a three-way tie atop the NFC South standings.

And with the first tiebreaker being the head-to-head record among the teams, Carolina’s season sweep of the Falcons (which combined with their split against Tampa Bay) gives them a 3-1 record in those games, ahead of Tampa Bay’s 2-2 record, and Atlanta’s 1-3.

Which would send Carlina to the playoffs.

So the Panthers and their fans will be pulling for the Falcons tomorrow.

Here are the NFC South standings following Tampa Bay’s win over Carolina:

e - Team has already been eliminated from playoff contention